\滞胀\风险≠美联储难降息：2月非农数据点评

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000[2] - Private non-farm employment also fell by 86,000, against an expectation of 60,000[2] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.3%[2] - Labor force participation rate dropped from 62.5% to 62.0%, influenced by population estimate adjustments[2] Wage and Hourly Data - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[2] - Year-on-year wage growth stood at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7%[2] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, with the anticipated number of cuts rising from 1.58 to 1.76 for the year[3] - The probability of a rate cut in July increased from 64% to 87%[3] - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.95% and the Nasdaq down 1.59%[3] Contributing Factors to Employment Decline - A significant strike at Kaiser Permanente affected approximately 31,000 jobs[3] - Severe weather in early February likely impacted employment in sensitive sectors like construction and leisure, estimated to have reduced employment by about 68,000[3] - Adjustments in the business birth and death model contributed to employment volatility, with a net contribution of 90,000 jobs, below the historical average[3] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Concerns about "stagflation" are rising, primarily due to oil price increases and disappointing employment data[4] - The impact of rising oil prices on CPI is expected to be temporary, lacking significant second-round effects[4] - The Federal Reserve may still pursue rate cuts if long-term inflation expectations remain stable despite rising oil prices[4]