政策重结构，密切关注通胀变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy focuses on economic restructuring, and inflation changes should be closely monitored. If the war situation is controllable, the bond market will be slightly bullish; otherwise, inflation risks should be watched [2][3][13] - The incremental statements in the "Government Work Report" are bullish for the bond market, but the overall policy tone is neutral. The supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, but the room for monetary policy is limited [13] - The main variable in the market is the war. If the war ends in the short - term and energy transportation is restored, inflation pressure is controllable, and the bond market should be slightly bullish. If the war intensifies, inflation will rise, and the bond market may face adjustment [2][13][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From March 2nd to March 8th, treasury bond futures rose slightly. Influenced by the US - Iran conflict and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts, the bond market was bullish in the first half of the week. However, due to the unmet policy expectations and the failure of reserve requirement ratio cuts, the bond market oscillated weakly. As of March 6th, the settlement prices of the 06 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.506, 106.130, 108.545, and 112.770 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.145, 0.155, and 0.650 yuan from last weekend [1][10] 1.2 Next Week's Views - If the market expects the war to end soon, the bond market should be slightly bullish, but the war situation and inflation risks need to be closely monitored. The "Government Work Report" has a bullish impact on the bond market, but the overall policy tone is neutral. The supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, and the room for interest rate cuts is limited. If the war ends in the short - term, the bond market's negative factors are limited; otherwise, the bond market may face adjustment [13][14] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 60 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 6064.84 billion yuan and a net financing of 1172.74 billion yuan, down 1809.36 billion yuan and 2510.15 billion yuan from last week respectively. 30 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2724.84 billion yuan and a net financing of 2552.24 billion yuan, up 160.64 billion yuan and 647.95 billion yuan from last week respectively. 519 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 7172.0 billion yuan and a net financing of 1292.10 billion yuan, up 2632.50 billion yuan and 3419.20 billion yuan from last week respectively [18] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of March 6th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.34%, 1.53%, 1.78%, and 2.28% respectively, down 2.16, 2.09, 4.20, and 0.80 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads narrowed, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened [22] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose slightly. As of March 6th, the settlement prices of the 06 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.506, 106.130, 108.545, and 112.770 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.145, 0.155, and 0.650 yuan from last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 30572, 51778, 67400, and 76133 lots respectively, down 22259, 46807, 105893, and 52216 lots from last week. The open interests were 70531, 183547, 325129, and 161969 lots respectively, down 778, 2896, up 162, and down 12721 lots from last week [30][34] 3.2 Basis and IRR - The basis of each contract oscillated and slightly narrowed this week. The IRR of T is slightly higher than 1.6%, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. If the war intensity decreases, the negative factors for the bond market are limited, but the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the short - term is low. If the war intensifies, inflation pressure will rise, and the bond market may decline [38] 3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of March 6th, the inter - period spreads of the 03 - 06 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.010, - 0.030, + 0.005, and - 0.350 yuan respectively, down 0.012, up 0.065, down 0.035, and down 0.100 yuan from last weekend [43] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 1616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 15250 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 13634 billion yuan. There were also 10000 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases. As of March 6th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.49%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively, down 1.54, 8.85, up 0.10, and down 8.80 basis points from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.64 trillion yuan, 1.93 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 91.14%, higher than last week [46][50] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose. As of March 6th, the US dollar index rose 1.34% to 98.9558 from last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.15%, up 18 basis points from last weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 237.3 basis points. The US - Iran war exceeded market expectations, increasing risk - aversion sentiment, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts was significantly revised down [53] 6. Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices generally rose this week. As of March 6th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 4005.41, 7179.37, and 1851.23 points respectively, up 311.37, down 46.17, and up 247.67 points from last weekend. Agricultural product prices generally fell. As of March 6th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.02, 5.10, and 8.06 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.52, down 0.15, and up 0.08 yuan/kg from last weekend [55] 7. Summary and Outlook - Closely monitor the war situation. If it is controllable, the bond market will be slightly bullish; otherwise, pay attention to inflation risks. It is recommended to focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of the T06 contract [56]