金属行业周报：强推电解铝配置和涨价品种-20260308

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for investing in electrolytic aluminum and price-increasing varieties [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The macro environment is currently unfavorable for non-ferrous metals due to rising oil prices and inflation expectations, with a short-term bearish outlook. However, the medium to long-term bullish perspective remains unchanged, with a focus on adjusting positions for accumulation opportunities [1]. - The ongoing conflict in Iran is disrupting aluminum supply, leading to an expansion in electrolytic aluminum profits. The report continues to recommend price-increasing varieties and emphasizes the importance of new materials related to technological growth [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant performance increase, with a 1-month absolute performance of 8.5%, 6-month performance of 52.3%, and a 12-month performance of 91.2% [3]. - The report highlights the largest gainers and losers in the sector, with Feinan Resources (301500) showing a weekly increase of 14.36% and Shenghe Resources (600392) experiencing a decline of 17.04% [2][3]. - Tungsten prices have risen by 12.71% due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, while tin prices have decreased by 6.94% due to macroeconomic pressures and weak demand [3][4]. Specific Metal Insights - Copper: The report notes a significant increase in domestic and international inventories, with a cautious outlook on the recovery pace post-holiday. The long-term view on copper prices remains bullish, with suggested investments in companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper [4]. - Aluminum: As of March 5, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory reached 1.256 million tons, a 9.9% increase. The report anticipates that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may impact the annual balance sheet, leading to sustained price increases [4]. - Tin: The report indicates that supply issues in Myanmar are stabilizing, with a strong support for tin prices in the near term [4]. - Nickel: Supply disruptions are expected to tighten the nickel market in the medium to long term, with current prices being 32% below historical highs [4]. Price Trends and Forecasts - The report maintains a target price of $6,000 per ounce for London gold within the year, driven by expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures [4]. - The report also highlights the potential for lithium prices to rise due to supply constraints expected in 2026, alongside a bullish outlook for cobalt prices due to ongoing supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4].