钢铁“反内卷”政策牵引，供需格局加速优化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the steel sector is experiencing a supply-demand optimization driven by policies addressing "involution" competition, which is expected to improve the long-standing issues of homogenized competition and excess capacity in the industry [3] - Current inventory pressures for the five major steel products are relatively limited, with overall inventory at historically low levels and the accumulation rate slower than in previous years [3] - The report suggests that the profitability of steel companies is expected to improve, particularly for those with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as the industry undergoes a "de-involution" phase [3] Supply Situation - As of March 6, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 85.3%, a decrease of 2.13 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.2759 million tons, down 5.69 thousand tons week-on-week [23] - The total production of the five major steel products is 6.995 million tons, an increase of 1.15 thousand tons week-on-week [23] Demand Situation - The consumption of the five major steel products reached 6.914 million tons as of March 6, an increase of 126.70 thousand tons week-on-week, representing a 22.44% increase [33] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 57 thousand tons, up 2.17 thousand tons week-on-week, a 62.12% increase [33] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of the five major steel products is 14.031 million tons, an increase of 107.38 thousand tons week-on-week, or 8.29% [41] - The factory inventory of the five major steel products is 5.489 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 thousand tons week-on-week, or 0.27% [41] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,403.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan/ton week-on-week [47] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 72 yuan/ton, down 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces is -80 yuan/ton, down 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port is 767 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [71] - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,715 yuan/ton, down 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [71] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - It also suggests paying attention to companies with excellent growth potential and those benefiting from the new energy cycle, such as CITIC Special Steel and Jiuli Special Materials [3]