2026年财政政策力度观察：温和的财政

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal policy in 2026 is moderate. The budgeted revenue growth rate of general public budget increases slightly, and the expenditure growth rate remains stable. The deficit rate is basically the same as that in 2025, and the financial strength is mild. The revenue of government - funded budget is basically the same as the previous year, and the expenditure growth rate declines. The total amount of government bonds remains basically unchanged, while the amount of policy - based financial instruments increases [1][2][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 General Budget Targets are Pragmatic, and the Deficit Rate Remains the Same - The budgeted revenue growth rate of general public budget in 2026 increases slightly, with a year - on - year growth of 2.2%, still significantly lower than the nominal GDP growth rate. The expenditure growth rate remains stable, with a year - on - year growth of 4.4%, the same as last year [1][9]. - The deficit level is basically the same as or slightly lower than that in 2025. The budgeted deficit rate in 2026 is 4.0%, the same as the previous value, and the deficit scale is 5.89 trillion yuan. The actual deficit rate is 5.4%, slightly lower than 5.5% in 2025. The carry - over balance and transferred - in funds are basically the same as last year [2][11]. 3.2 Government - Funded Budget Revenue Remains the Same, and the Expenditure Growth Rate Declines - The revenue of government - funded budget in 2026 is basically the same as the previous year, and the expenditure growth rate declines. The revenue budget growth rate is 0.6%, and the expenditure budget growth rate is 5.1%. The stabilization of land transfer - related revenues remains to be observed, and the decline in expenditure growth is related to the high base of special bonds and special treasury bonds last year [19]. - The combined deficit of the first two accounts is basically the same. The budgeted broad - based deficit rate in 2026 is 9.5%, slightly lower than the budget target of 10.0% last year. The financial strength improvement this year is limited [22]. - In 2026, the revenue of the state - owned capital operation budget decreases by 6.8% to 796.614 billion yuan, and the expenditure increases by 10.3% to 292.117 billion yuan. The amount transferred to the general public budget is 530.488 billion yuan, and the transfer - out ratio rises to 64% [25]. 3.3 The Total Amount of Government Bonds Remains Basically Unchanged, and the Policy - Based Financial Instruments Increase - The supply of government bonds in 2026 is basically the same as last year. The general treasury bonds increase slightly by 23 billion yuan, and the special treasury bonds decrease slightly by 20 billion yuan. The total budget of government bonds in 2026 is 11.89 trillion yuan (excluding special refinancing bonds), only increasing by 3 billion yuan compared with 2025 [28]. - The policy - based financial instruments are included in the government work report for the first time this year, with an amount increased to 80 billion yuan for supplementing the capital of major projects. In 2025, 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments were fully invested, supporting more than 2,300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan. In 2026, 80 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments will be issued, which is expected to drive the growth of investment in related fields [5][29].