有色金属大宗金属周报（2026/3/2-2026/3/6）：中东地缘形成供给冲击，铝价上行-20260308

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have created supply shocks, leading to an increase in aluminum prices [3] - The copper market is experiencing a weak fluctuation due to continuous inventory accumulation and recession expectations stemming from the Iran conflict, with short-term price weakness anticipated [6] - The aluminum market is expected to see upward price movement due to supply disruptions from the Middle East, despite a generally oversupplied market [6] - Lithium prices are projected to continue rising as inventory levels decrease, despite recent price drops [6] - Cobalt prices are fluctuating with upcoming raw material arrivals, and there is a focus on downstream replenishment [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February exceeded expectations at 52.4, indicating a stable economic outlook [10] - The U.S. ADP employment figures for February also surpassed expectations, suggesting a robust job market [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index declining by 5.47%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.54 percentage points [12][13] - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Southern Manganese and Sichuan Gold, while the worst performers were companies like Yahua Group and Northern Rare Earth [12] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan non-ferrous sector is 33.78, down by 3.10 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 4.17, down by 0.39 [21][24] 4. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices have decreased, with LME copper down 4.76% and SHFE copper down 2.76% [26] - Inventory levels have increased significantly, with LME copper inventory rising by 12.07% [26] Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 6.23%, while SHFE aluminum prices rose by 3.59% [38] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a profit increase, with margins rising to 8,930 CNY/ton [38] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have dropped by 9.74% to 155,250 CNY/ton, but the market is expected to recover as demand increases [78] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are fluctuating, with MB cobalt down 0.10% to 26.05 USD/pound, and domestic prices also declining [91]