2026.03.02-2026.03.06日策略周报：受中东冲突影响，A股指数震荡下行-20260308

Core Insights - The A-share indices experienced a downward trend due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which led to a significant rise in international oil prices and increased global inflation expectations [2][12] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, the top gainers were Oil and Petrochemicals and Coal, with increases of 8.06% and 3.79% respectively, while the largest declines were seen in Media and Non-ferrous Metals, which fell by 6.97% and 5.47% respectively [3][18] - In the 124 second-level industries, the best performers were Oil Service Engineering and Electric Grid Equipment, with weekly gains of 12.73% and 6.66%. Year-to-date, Oil Service Engineering and Small Metals led with increases of 60.08% and 41.71% respectively. The largest weekly declines were in Energy Metals and Digital Media, down 9.22% and 8.24% respectively, with year-to-date declines in Aviation Airports and State-owned Large Banks II of 12.79% and 8.69% respectively [3][21] - In the 259 third-level industries, the top gainers were Coal Chemical and Oil and Gas Refining Engineering, with weekly increases of 15.17% and 14.58%. Year-to-date, Oil and Gas Refining Engineering and Communication Cables and Accessories led with increases of 75.77% and 54.40% respectively. The largest weekly declines were in Photovoltaic Processing Equipment and Communication Value-added Services, down 12.18% and 10.42% respectively, with year-to-date declines in Aviation Transportation and Brand Consumer Electronics of 14.29% and 9.99% respectively [4][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term view for 2026, indicating it is the beginning year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the central bank implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support stable economic growth and maintain a "slow bull" market for A-shares [5][24] - Short-term focus should be on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" related to new productivity (technology, environmental protection), structural opportunities in traditional sectors related to "anti-involution," defensive dividend sectors related to long-term capital inflows, and sectors benefiting from the Middle East conflict [5][24]