宏观周报（3月2日-3月8日）：两会定调开局，外部变局加剧-20260308

Economic Policy and Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set in the range of 4.5%-5%[1] - The government emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth[1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic cinema box office revenue averaged 21.32 million yuan per day, a 72.2% increase year-on-year[3] - The average number of domestic flights increased by 15.5% compared to March of the previous year, averaging 14,200 flights[3] External Demand and Geopolitical Risks - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2162.0, a 5.6% increase month-on-month and a 40.9% increase year-on-year[3] - Oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, impacting external demand and supply chain expectations[1] Production and Industrial Performance - The steel industry saw a decrease in operating rates, with blast furnace utilization dropping by 2.55 percentage points to 77.69%[3] - Chemical production remained strong, supported by high oil prices, with PTA production increasing by 106,300 tons[3] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a week-on-week decline in pork prices by 3.92% and vegetable prices by 4.07%[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) was affected by rising oil prices, with WTI crude oil increasing by 19.0% and Brent crude by 17.5%[5] Fiscal Policy and Government Spending - The government issued 149 billion yuan in general bonds and 781.7 billion yuan in new special bonds this week[6] - Total public budget expenditure reached a record high of 30 trillion yuan for 2026[6] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China announced an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining liquidity in the market[7] - The 10-year government bond yield stabilized around 1.8%[7] International Economic Conditions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for February showed a decrease of 92,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations[7] - The Eurozone faces rising inflation risks alongside economic slowdown due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation and slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence[7]