基本金属行业周报：伊朗局势加剧抬高石油价格，通胀预期抬升压制金属价格-20260308

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The escalation of the Iran situation has led to increased oil prices, which in turn has raised inflation expectations, impacting precious metal prices negatively. Gold prices on COMEX fell by 2.17% to $5,181.30 per ounce, while silver dropped by 10.27% to $84.70 per ounce [1][3] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to continue affecting oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising from $67.02 per barrel to $90.90 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of 35.6% [5][10] - The report highlights that the current macroeconomic environment is pressuring metal prices, particularly copper, which has seen a decline due to rising inflation expectations and a strong dollar [10][12] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and rising inflation expectations. The gold-silver ratio increased by 9.02% to 61.18, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 900,540.93 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 7,419,587.30 ounces, reflecting reduced investor confidence [1] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices fell by 3.21% to $12,869.00 per ton, while aluminum rose by 9.22% to $3,431.00 per ton. Zinc saw a slight increase of 0.45% to $3,323.00 per ton [8][9] - The SHFE market showed similar trends, with copper down 2.76% to 101,050.00 yuan per ton, while aluminum increased by 3.69% to 24,715.00 yuan per ton [9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of copper is under pressure due to tight global conditions, with significant production disruptions reported in major mining countries. The report indicates that Chile's copper production fell by 3% year-on-year in January [11][30] - The aluminum market is experiencing supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions affecting production in the Middle East, with potential risks of further production cuts if conflicts persist [14][18] Small Metals - Molybdenum prices remain stable due to strong demand from the military sector, with the report highlighting that geopolitical tensions are driving increased military spending and demand for strategic materials [22][24] - Vanadium prices have seen an uptick due to recovering demand from the steel industry and the growth of vanadium battery applications, with significant increases in installed capacity expected in the coming years [25][26]