策略周报：短期震荡，等待下一个“战略级”布局点-20260308

Core Insights - The report indicates a short-term market fluctuation with a transition into a consolidation phase, while maintaining a structural slow bull market outlook for A-shares in the medium term. It emphasizes the need to closely monitor the next "strategic" entry point [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary observation metric for the impact of the recent military conflict on equity markets is oil prices, which are influenced by geopolitical risks leading to cost shocks. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has created a "hard supply gap" for crude oil, shifting price determination from demand to risk premiums and transportation disruptions [3][11]. - The report outlines a three-stage liquidity feedback loop: 1. Cost shocks from geopolitical risks affecting oil supply [11]. 2. Resilience of inflation disrupting the "rate cut logic," with rising oil prices pushing CPI expectations higher, leading to a delay in anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11][12]. 3. Liquidity shocks in emerging markets, including A-shares, as strong dollar conditions prompt capital withdrawal from high-elasticity emerging markets back to safe-haven assets [12][17]. Group 2: Strategic Investment Points - The report highlights the need to identify the next "strategic" investment point, noting that previous strategic buy points since 2025 were triggered by trade friction and liquidity expectations. The current phase is characterized by a stable domestic economic structure and ongoing trends in the AI industry, which remain unaffected by military conflicts [18][19]. - The A-share index is approximately 4% away from its equity risk premium's upper bound, indicating potential for upward movement despite valuation and regulatory pressures. The report anticipates a slow bull market throughout the year [18][19]. - The structural focus remains on "technology" and "cyclical resources," with the potential for renewed catalysts in the cyclical resource market due to rising overseas uncertainties. The technology sector is expected to face short-term pressures from tightening overseas liquidity, but long-term investment logic remains intact [18][19].