Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints - Global electricity consumption has been increasing in tandem with economic growth, with an average growth rate of 3.9% over the past five years. China's high - speed growth in electricity consumption is a key factor in the rise of global electricity consumption. By the end of 2025, global electricity consumption reached 30,678 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 3%. China's total social electricity consumption reached 10,360 TWh, ranking first in the world [3]. - In the next five years, global electricity consumption is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.5% - 4%. By 2030, global electricity consumption may exceed 36,000 TWh, an increase of about 6,000 TWh compared to 2025. China's electricity consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 5%, reaching over 13,000 TWh by 2030, an increase of about 2,800 TWh compared to 2025. The electricity consumption of the US and Europe is expected to grow at a rate of 2%. By 2030, the US electricity consumption may exceed 5,000 TWh, an increase of about 470 TWh compared to 2025, and Europe's electricity consumption may exceed 5,300 TWh, an increase of about 580 TWh compared to 2025 [4]. - The large - scale development of AI technology relies on the continuous expansion of data centers, which in turn depend on the power system. By the end of 2024, global data center electricity consumption reached 416 TWh. By 2030, global data center electricity consumption is expected to reach 950 TWh, with an average growth rate of over 21%. China's data center electricity consumption is expected to reach 277 TWh by 2030, accounting for 29% of the global total, with an average growth rate of over 28% [4][5]. - The global new - energy vehicle market has expanded significantly. By the end of 2025, global new - energy vehicle sales reached 2.054 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. By 2030, global new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 4 million, and electric vehicle electricity consumption is expected to reach 790 TWh, nearly tripling compared to 2025. China is in a dominant position in the global new - energy vehicle market. By 2030, China's new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 2.12 million [6][7]. - The global industrialization process is advancing. In 2024, global industrial added value reached $28.9 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, and industrial electricity consumption exceeded 11,000 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 4%. By 2030, global industrial electricity consumption is expected to increase to over 12,800 TWh, with an average growth rate of 2.5%. China's industrial electricity consumption is expected to increase to over 8,200 TWh by 2030, accounting for over 60% of global industrial electricity consumption [8][9]. - The global electrification rate has been increasing. In 2025, the global electrification rate reached 21%. By 2030, the global electrification rate is expected to increase to over 25%. China's electrification rate is expected to reach 35% by 2030 [10]. Summary by Directory I. Economic Prosperity Boosts Electricity Consumption, and China Becomes the Primary Growth Driver 1.1 Global Electricity Consumption Keeps Growing, and China's Electricity Demand Far Exceeds that of Europe and the US - Global electricity consumption has increased in line with economic growth, with an average growth rate of 3.9% over the past five years. By the end of 2025, China's electricity consumption accounted for one - third of the global total, exceeding the combined electricity consumption of the US, Europe, and Japan. In 2025, global electricity consumption reached 30,678 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 3% [18]. - China's electricity consumption scale has achieved remarkable results. By the end of 2025, China's total social electricity consumption reached 10,360 TWh, with the secondary industry's electricity consumption reaching 6,629 TWh, accounting for 64% of the total. The tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption have maintained high - speed growth [20]. - The US and Europe play a key role in global electricity consumption growth, accounting for 30% of the global total. However, the proportion of developed countries' electricity consumption is decreasing. By the end of 2025, Europe's annual electricity consumption reached 4,807 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%, accounting for 15.7% of the global total. The US's annual electricity consumption reached 4,537 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, accounting for 14.8% of the global total [30][32]. 1.2 New and Old Economic Models Work Together to Promote the Increase of Electricity Consumption - In the future, global electricity consumption is expected to continue to grow steadily, with an average growth rate of 3.5% - 4% in the next five years. By 2030, global electricity consumption may exceed 36,000 TWh, an increase of about 6,000 TWh compared to 2025 [41]. - China is the main force in global electricity consumption. In the next five years, China's electricity consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 5%. By 2030, China's electricity consumption may exceed 13,000 TWh, an increase of about 2,800 TWh compared to 2025. The electricity consumption of the US and Europe is expected to grow at a rate of 2%. By 2030, the US electricity consumption may exceed 5,000 TWh, and Europe's electricity consumption may exceed 5,300 TWh [42]. II. The AI Market Has Great Prospects, and the Power System Provides Underlying Support 2.1 The AI Market Is Expanding Rapidly, and Data Centers Consume a Huge Amount of Electricity - The large - scale development of AI technology depends on the continuous expansion of data centers. Servers account for 60% of data center electricity consumption, cooling systems account for 20%, storage systems account for 5%, network equipment accounts for 5%, and other infrastructure accounts for 10%. 80% of AI electricity consumption is concentrated in the operation stage, and 20% is in the manufacturing stage [50][51]. - By the end of 2024, the global data center electricity consumption reached 416 TWh. The US data center electricity consumption reached 183 TWh, accounting for 44% of the global total; China's data center electricity consumption reached 102 TWh, accounting for 25% of the global total; and Europe's data center electricity consumption reached 68 TWh, accounting for 16% of the global total [54]. 2.2 The AI Market Has Great Growth Potential, and the Sino - US Competition Drives Electricity Demand - The global AI software market is expected to grow from about $174.1 billion currently to over $460 billion by 2030. By 2030, global data center electricity consumption is expected to reach 950 TWh, with an average growth rate of over 21% [57][60]. - China is expected to see a large - scale growth in the AI market and electricity consumption. By 2030, China's data center electricity consumption is expected to reach 277 TWh, accounting for 29% of the global total, with an average growth rate of over 28%. The US data center electricity consumption is expected to reach 426 TWh, accounting for 45% of the global total, with an average growth rate of over 22%. Europe's data center electricity consumption is expected to reach 113 TWh, accounting for 12% of the global total, with an average growth rate of over 11% [60][61]. III. New - Energy Vehicles Create New Growth, and the Scale of Electricity Consumption Is Expected to Increase 3.1 New - Energy Vehicles Increase Electricity Consumption, and China Dominates the Market - In recent years, the rise of new - energy vehicles has changed the pattern of the traditional automotive industry and increased electricity consumption. In the past five years, global new - energy vehicle sales have increased by more than six times. By the end of 2025, global new - energy vehicle sales reached 2.054 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. By the end of 2024, global electric vehicle electricity consumption reached 180 TWh, more than four times that in 2020 [68]. - China is in a dominant position in the global new - energy vehicle market. In 2025, China's new - energy vehicle sales reached 1.649 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, accounting for 80% of the global total. Europe's new - energy vehicle sales reached 392,000 in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 32.1%. The US new - energy vehicle sales reached 150,000 in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [72][73]. 3.2 The Global Market Sales Continue to Grow, and the Proportion of Electricity Consumption Is Expected to Increase - In the future, the global new - energy vehicle market is expected to continue to expand. By 2030, global new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 4 million, and electric vehicle electricity consumption is expected to reach 790 TWh, nearly tripling compared to 2025. The proportion of electric vehicle electricity consumption in total electricity consumption will increase from 0.7% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2030 [76]. - China's new - energy vehicle market will continue to grow. By 2030, China's new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 2.12 million, and the proportion of electric vehicle electricity consumption in total electricity consumption will increase from 1.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2030. Europe's proportion of electric vehicle electricity consumption in total electricity consumption will increase from 1% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2030. The US's proportion of electric vehicle electricity consumption in total electricity consumption will increase from 0.6% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2030, but it may not reach the expected target if relevant policies are not implemented [81][86]. IV. Industrial Electricity Consumption Remains the Main Force, and China's Dominance Is Hard to Change 4.2 The Global Industrial Scale Continues to Expand, and China's Industrial Electricity Consumption Accounts for Half of the Global Total - The global new - round of industrialization is in full swing. In 2024, global industrial added value reached $28.9 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Industrial electricity consumption exceeded 11,000 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 4%, accounting for nearly 40% of the global total [91]. - China is a leading manufacturing country. In 2024, China's industrial added value reached $6.8 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, accounting for 23.7% of the global total. In 2025, China's industrial electricity consumption reached 6,737 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, accounting for 64.8% of the domestic total social electricity consumption. China's industrial electricity consumption has accounted for more than 50% of the global total since 2019 and is still increasing [93]. - The industrial added value of Europe and the US is slightly lower than that of China, and their industrial electricity consumption is far less than that of China. In 2024, the EU's industrial added value reached $4.3 trillion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, accounting for 14.9% of the global total. In 2025, Europe's industrial electricity consumption was about 1,850 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, accounting for more than 30% of the global total [98]. 4.2 Industrial Transfer Increases the Electricity Consumption Base, and Technological Empowerment Increases Marginal Demand - In the future, the global industrialization process will continue. By 2030, global industrial electricity consumption is expected to increase to over 12,800 TWh, with an average growth rate of 2.5%. The proportion of industrial electricity consumption in the global total electricity consumption will decrease to 35% [100]. - China's manufacturing advantage is difficult to shake and is expected to be strengthened. By 2030, China's industrial electricity consumption is expected to increase to over 8,200 TWh, accounting for over 60% of the global total. The US's industrial electricity consumption may not improve significantly due to industrial hollowing - out. Europe's industrial electricity consumption is not optimistic. The industrial electricity consumption of developing countries is expected to increase [100][101]. V. China's Electrification Rate Leads Europe and the US and Is Expected to Take the Lead in a Few Years 5.1 The Electrification Rate Affects the Electricity Consumption Multiplier, and China's Electrification Rate Is Growing Rapidly - The electrification rate reflects the modernization process. In 2025, the global electrification rate reached 21%. Japan's electrification rate reached 30%, and the main countries in Europe and the US generally maintained between 20% - 25%. China's electrification rate was close to 30%, and India's was still below 20% [107]. - China's electrification rate has achieved all - round development. In 2024, the electrification rate in the industrial field reached over 27%, in the construction field reached over 55%, and in the transportation field reached over 6% [107]. 5.2 The Global Electrification Rate Continues to Improve, and China's Main Industries Are Improving Steadily - In the future, the global electrification rate is expected to further increase. By 2030, the global electrification rate may increase to over 25%. China's electrification rate is expected to reach 35% by 2030. By 2028, the electrification rate in the industrial field may reach over 33%, in the construction field may reach over 58%, and in the transportation field may reach over 9% [109][110]. VI. Summary - Economic development is the foundation for the growth of electricity consumption. China is one of the main forces leading global economic growth, and its electricity consumption has great upward potential, which will be the core force driving global electricity consumption [114]. - Globally, the development of AI technology, the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new - energy vehicles, and the progress of industrialization will lead to an increase in electricity consumption. With the improvement of the electrification level of the whole society, the importance of electricity as a special commodity will be more emphasized [114].
电力消费上升趋势不改，中国引领全球用电增幅
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-03-08 08:13