Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-08 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting global commodity markets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, leading to increased prices for key resources [8][28]. - The report highlights a strong expectation for aluminum prices to rise due to supply constraints caused by geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East [28]. - Demand recovery is noted in the aluminum sector as downstream industries resume operations post-holiday, with significant increases in aluminum water ratios [28]. - The lithium and cobalt markets are experiencing upward price pressures due to supply concerns from Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo, respectively [28]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, with a bullish outlook on gold prices in the medium to long term [28]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a general upward trend in stock prices despite recent market volatility [11][13]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices have increased by 9.22% week-on-week, with expectations for continued strength due to supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions [15][28]. - Copper prices have shown volatility, with a recent decline attributed to rising geopolitical risks and a strong dollar, impacting market sentiment [48][49]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated due to supply and demand dynamics, with recent increases in domestic inventories affecting price stability [60][61]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold prices have risen by 3.71% recently, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [16][28]. - The report notes that silver prices have also increased significantly, reflecting strong industrial demand and investment interest [16][28]. - Cobalt and nickel markets are under pressure from supply constraints and geopolitical factors, with expectations for price increases in the near term [28][73]. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths in this section, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market dynamics [28].