Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-08 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the urgency of carbon reduction goals, with the government targeting a 3.8% reduction in carbon intensity per unit of GDP. This highlights the steel industry's significant role as the second-largest carbon emitter after electricity [7]. - International tensions are driving up raw material prices, with costs remaining relatively firm due to rising oil and coal prices. The supply-demand recovery in the steel sector is slow, but the long-term carbon reduction requirements are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to a recovery in steel company profits [7]. - The report identifies leading companies in various segments: 1. General steel leaders: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel segment: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. 4. Raw materials: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium ore), Fangda Carbon [7]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of March 6, 2026, steel prices in Shanghai showed fluctuations, with rebar (20mm HRB400) priced at 3170 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also experienced minor changes [14][15]. Profit Situation - The report indicates a decline in steel profits, with average weekly gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 31 CNY/ton, 11 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [7]. Production and Inventory - As of March 6, 2026, the total production of five major steel varieties reached 7.97 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.47 million tons week-on-week. Total inventory also rose by 1.07 million tons to 14.01 million tons [7]. Raw Material Market - The report notes that domestic iron ore prices are fluctuating, while imported ore prices are stable to slightly increasing. As of March 6, 2026, domestic iron ore prices varied, with Anshan iron concentrate at 750 CNY/ton and imported Brazilian powder at 888 CNY/ton [30].