纯苯、苯乙烯偏强：BZ&EB周报-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene and styrene will remain strong. The main impacts of the conflict include: a reduction in pure benzene supply due to the reduced load of cracking units, especially in South Korea; an increase in domestic styrene exports, which affects the global balance; and active replenishment by other downstream industries of pure benzene. The current downstream profits are still high, and it's not yet time for negative feedback. [3][68] - Pay attention to the expansion of BZN. Due to the continuous reduction of the load of refineries exporting naphtha from the Middle East to Asia, there is a pressure of load reduction on Asian cracking and reforming, and the spot gap of cracking downstream products continues to expand. [3][68] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene imports: After the second quarter, imports have been reduced to 38 - 400,000 tons under the background of continuous load reduction of overseas refineries. [3][68] - Pure benzene domestic production: The average monthly maintenance loss from March to May is 60,000 tons. Pay attention to the subsequent load reduction of domestic refineries. Preventive load reduction has occurred in Fujian United, CNOOC Shell, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Gulei, etc. [3][68] Demand - Overall, after the significant increase in the absolute price of key downstream products last week, the profits remain good and have not been compressed. [3][68] - Styrene: There is still uncertainty about the startup of marginal units such as Jingbo and Yuhuang in March. The maintenance loss is 60,000 tons in March and 90,000 tons in April. [3][68] - Caprolactam and adipic acid: Prices have risen, industry profits have recovered rapidly, and PA6 inventory has also been rapidly reduced. The average monthly output is higher than previously expected, and there are few maintenance activities. [3][68] - Phenol: Profits remain high, and the operating rate is continuously increasing. There are not many maintenance units. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of Shandong Ruilin. [3][68] - Aniline: Profits remain high, with a maintenance of 17,000 tons in March and less maintenance from April to May. It will remain high in the short term. [3][68] - The demand for the 3S downstream of styrene exceeds expectations. After the market rose rapidly, downstream factories entered the replenishment cycle. Currently, home appliance factories are preparing for the post - Spring Festival boom, stimulating the replenishment process of the industrial chain. Pay attention to the sustainability of the price increase of 3S. [3][68] Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on the crude oil price of $100, the reasonable valuation of the bz2603 contract is 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton. [3][68] - EB processing fee: The expansion has reached a phased peak. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term profit contraction. [3][68] Strategy - Unilateral: When the absolute price reaches the limit, choose the opportunity to buy call options. [3][68] - Cross - variety: Expand BZN. [3][68] Production Capacity - In 2026, there will be a large number of pure benzene production capacity projects, with a total of 2.86 million tons, while the downstream production capacity projects are coming to an end. [6] - The downstream of styrene will continue to have production capacity expansion in 2026, with a total of 600,000 tons of styrene, 700,000 tons of EPS, 1.32 million tons of PS, and 375,000 tons of ABS. [7]