动力煤产业链周度报告-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The post - holiday coal price rally was influenced by the Indonesian coal incident. However, as the market enters the traditional consumption off - season in March, the coal price support weakens, and the market pattern becomes looser, with coal prices likely to continue to decline. In the long - term, new energy will continue to replace thermal power, and coal demand will peak and decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Policy will guide supply, and coal prices will operate between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long run [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coal prices have a slight correction. Both domestic and imported coal prices have increased. As of March 6, 2026, the price of Yulin 5800 kcal coal index rose by 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Ordos 5500 kcal coal index fell by 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Datong 5500 kcal coal index rose by 22.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of Qinhuangdao Port 5500 coal was reported at 750.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Qinhuangdao Port 5000 coal was reported at 669.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI import 4700 index rose by 1.7 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI import 3800 index rose by 1.7 dollars/ton week - on - week [4][8]. 2. Supply 2.1 Domestic Production (Weekly) - Pit - mouth supply is increasing steadily. From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West regions reached 83.51%, up 13.97 percentage points from the previous period. Factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved increased - capacity mines, and the disposal of increased - capacity mines that fail to fulfill coal contracts [14][16]. 2.2 Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi produced 339556 tons of raw coal in 2025, accounting for 70.28% of the national total, with a year - on - year increase of 1.49% [17][22]. 2.3 Seaborne Coal - The arrival volume of imported coal at ports decreased month - on - month [23]. 2.4 Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume reached 5859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. In 2026, Indonesian coal exports have been weak due to policy interference, such as slow approval of mining plans and potential export tariff regulations [24][29]. 3. Inventory 3.1 Mine - The inventory at the origin increased month - on - month [31]. 3.2 Port - The inventory at northern ports has accumulated. As of March 6, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 2340.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.0 tons [2][37]. 4. Transportation - The inflow and outflow of ports have increased [39]. 5. Demand 5.1 Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants has rebounded, and the inventory has been depleted. In the next 10 days (March 7 - 16), there will be more precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some areas will be lower than normal. In 2025, the growth rate of the whole - society electricity consumption was 5% [41][48][49]. 5.2 Power Production - In 2025, the thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in the southwest region is relatively low [52][54]. 5.3 Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. The blast furnace operating rate this week was 80.22% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker decreased by 6.19 percentage points to 35.29% week - on - week [60].