棉花：高位盘整等待驱动20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - ICE cotton futures are weak due to lack of fundamental drivers, with increasing US cotton warehouse receipts and poor export data, and concerns about the global economic outlook and the possible end of the US interest - rate cut cycle caused by the Iran situation. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][4][15] - Zhengzhou cotton futures have fallen from high levels but held the technical support at 15,100. The domestic cotton demand is healthy, and the market's attention to agricultural products has increased. However, the lack of new fundamental drivers and concerns about increased cotton and yarn imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton limit its upside. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [1][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opening price 65.59, high 65.76, low 63.62, closing price 64.21, down 1.35, down 2.06%, trading volume 173,128 lots, trading volume change - 5,451 lots, open interest 162,737 lots, open interest change - 5,451 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opening price 15,335, high 15,455, low 15,100, closing price 15,295, down 100, down 0.65%, trading volume 2,059,531 lots, trading volume change - 313,802 lots, open interest 765,080 lots, open interest change - 72,900 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: opening price 21,190, high 21,305, low 20,940, closing price 21,205, down 40, down 0.19%, trading volume 60,872 lots, trading volume change 5,084 lots, open interest 14,616 lots, open interest change 122 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton is weak again due to lack of fundamental drivers, increasing US cotton warehouse receipts, poor export data, and concerns about the global economic outlook and the possible end of the US interest - rate cut cycle caused by the Iran situation [4] - US cotton weekly export sales data: as of the week ending February 26, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,100 tons, a 41% week - on - week decline and a 50% decline from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 12,400 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 64,000 tons, a 46% week - on - week increase and a 43% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0865 million tons, accounting for 80% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.1026 million tons, accounting for 53% of the annual total signed volume [5] - Other cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: domestic cotton prices have risen. The ex - factory price of S - 6 has increased to 54,750 rupees per candy (about 76.8 cents per pound), and the ex - factory price of Punjab J - 34 has remained stable at 5,420 rupees per maund (about 72.4 cents per pound). The Cotton Corporation of India raised the floor price of S - 6 in the 2025/26 season by 100 rupees per candy to 54,500 rupees per candy (about 76.45 cents per pound) on February 26 and has maintained this level. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India have been relatively strong this week [6] - Brazil: the market is concerned about the new crop output, and the downward adjustment is limited. Reports of excessive rainfall in Mato Grosso were exaggerated. Although many private forecasting agencies have slightly lower output estimates for MT state than the official agency CONAB's February report, about 70% of the crops were planted within the ideal sowing window, and the final output depends on subsequent climate conditions. The field reports in Bahia state are more optimistic [6] - Bangladesh: there are concerns about the impact of the Middle East situation on energy supply and costs. The demand for sustainably certified cotton is rising, and some spinning mills are purchasing organic cotton. There were protests due to wage arrears before the Eid al - Fitr festival. The government has provided support. The export value of knitted and woven garments in February was $2.82 billion, a 22% month - on - month and 13% year - on - year decline. The cumulative export value in the first 8 months of this fiscal year was $25.8 billion, a 4% decline compared to the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year [7] - Pakistan: the new crop sowing is going smoothly. There are concerns about the Middle East situation. The demand for imported cotton is moderate, and yarn exports are still good. Warm weather has expanded the cotton - planting area in the earliest sown areas of Sindh and Punjab. If the temperature remains high in the coming weeks, winter wheat will mature earlier, which is also conducive to early cotton sowing in other areas. The water supply is more abundant than last year. If the Middle East conflict continues, international cargo transportation may be delayed. The demand for imported cotton is moderate, and yarn export inquiries are still strong, mainly from the Chinese market [7][8] - Southeast Asian textile industry chain's operating rate: as of the week ending March 6, the operating rate of Indian textile enterprises was 69.5%, that of Vietnamese textile enterprises was 68.5%, and that of Pakistani textile enterprises was 69.5% [8] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range, and trading is still relatively light. In the week ending March 6, cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Spot trading improved slightly compared to last week but the improvement was limited. The sales basis of cotton spot decreased slightly compared to last week, and low - basis quotes increased slightly, with better transactions for low - basis spot [9] - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: as of March 6, there were 11,443 registered warehouse receipts and 1,275 forecast warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,718, equivalent to 534,156 tons. There were 254 registered warehouse receipts of domestic - produced cotton and 11,189 of Xinjiang cotton (including 1,605 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,293 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 8,291 in inland warehouses) [9] - Downstream orders and trading have improved. After the resumption of work of downstream enterprises after the Lantern Festival, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has been good, with an increase in orders for weaving factories and an increase in the purchasing enthusiasm for pure - cotton yarn. Large spinning mills' quotes have remained stable overall, while some small and medium - sized spinning mills have slightly adjusted their quotes. The orders for combed high - count yarn are hot, and the orders of some spinning mills in Xinjiang can be scheduled until the end of April, while those in the inland can be scheduled for about a month. The sales of other varieties are gradually starting, and the trading in the overall market has recovered. The inventory of inland spinning mills has decreased, and the operating rate has continued to rise. The theoretical immediate cash flow of Xinjiang spinning mills is about 900 yuan per ton, and that of inland spinning mills is about - 700 yuan per ton, but the actual cash flow of inland spinning mills is about 50 yuan per ton. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, trading was stable in the first half of the week and increased in the second half, with faster sales. The quotes of all - cotton grey fabric increased and then remained stable. Orders increased in the second half of the week, and some large factories can produce until the end of March. The inventory of weaving factories has decreased, and the operating rate has increased to about 40%. Weaving factories had a small amount of inventory before the Spring Festival, and they currently purchase raw materials as needed, with a raw material inventory of 10 - 15 days [10] 3.3基础数据图表 - The report provides 14 figures, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' operating rate, cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [12][13][14] 3.4操作建议 - ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to US cotton exports and the new crops in Brazil and the US [15] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. Attention should be paid to the actual domestic cotton demand and whether there are new upward drivers in the domestic and international cotton markets [15]