铜产业链周度报告-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High US dollar and weak reality are pressuring copper prices, but the long - term fundamentals remain healthy, limiting the price correction space. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has both positive and negative impacts on copper prices. Although it may intensify the supply - demand gap expectation of refined copper, it also strengthens the US dollar index and exerts pressure on risk asset prices. [7] - The current fundamental reality is weak, with the global total copper inventory continuing to rise. The overall position in the copper market is showing a downward trend, indicating insufficient capital support. However, there is still a long - term supply - demand gap, and the fundamental expectation remains healthy. [7] - In terms of trading strategies, although high US dollar and weak reality are pressuring prices, there are still long - position opportunities after the price correction. Attention should be paid to risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the Shanghai copper term and domestic - foreign markets. [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME, INE, SHFE, and COMEX copper has decreased. The LME copper price volatility is around 10%, and the Shanghai copper volatility is about 22%, both showing a significant decline compared to the previous week. [13] - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai copper has improved, and the spot discount of LME copper has narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end C structure has expanded. [16][18] - Position: SHFE and INE copper positions have increased, while LME copper positions have decreased. The Shanghai copper position has increased by 1,371 lots to 579,900 lots. [19] - Capital and Industrial Positions: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial has also declined. [24] - Spot Premium and Discount: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The US copper premium remains at 7.5 cents per pound, the Rotterdam copper premium remains at $190 per ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has decreased. [28][31] - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in social inventory. The domestic social inventory is at a historically high level, the bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has decreased but is still at a historically high level, and the LME copper inventory has increased. [32][36] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, and the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. [37] 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year, and the processing fee has been continuously weak. The port inventory of copper concentrate has decreased, and the smelting loss has slightly increased. [40][43] - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper has increased year - on - year, and the domestic production has increased significantly year - on - year. The refined - scrap price difference of recycled copper has narrowed, and the import profit has expanded. [44][49] - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month, and the processing fee has rebounded. [53] - Refined Copper: The domestic refined copper production has increased year - on - year, the import has decreased, and the loss of copper spot import has narrowed. [55] 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: In February, the operating rates of copper product enterprises have rebounded month - on - month, but are all lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of wire and cable has increased marginally in the week of March 5. [59] - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level in the same period, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. The processing fee of brass and copper strip has rebounded, and the processing fee of lithium - ion copper foil has remained stable at a low level. [62][65] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has increased marginally. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a neutral - low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes is at a low level in the same period of history. [66] - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods is at a high level in the same period of history, the finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes is at a neutral - low level in the same period of history. [69] 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual consumption and apparent consumption of domestic copper have increased year - on - year, and the growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. [74][76] - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The air - conditioner production has decreased, while the new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level. In December, the domestic air - conditioner production decreased year - on - year, and in January 2026, the domestic new - energy vehicle production increased year - on - year. [77]