铅产业链周度报告-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as "Weak", with a price range of 16,300 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, lead prices rebounded and then slightly declined. The highest price of Shanghai lead during the week was 17,010 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.09%. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have little impact on lead prices, and the logic of lead mainly depends on supply - demand fundamentals [9] - On the supply side, primary lead production increased as some smelters gradually resumed production. Recycling lead profit slightly recovered, but the supply of scrap batteries was tight. However, considering the gradual resumption of production by recycling enterprises, it is expected that the production of recycled lead will gradually increase. Lead - acid battery enterprises have started to resume work and production, with a rapid increase in battery operating rates. Logistics has gradually recovered, and stores have increased their demand for lead - acid batteries, leading to a continuous reduction in battery finished - product inventory [9] - In terms of social inventory, the total inventory of lead ingots in five regions increased, being at a moderately high level compared to the same period in history, but the inventory growth rate significantly slowed down. High inventory put pressure on the spot market, and the spot discount widened. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has specified that recycled lead (alternative delivery product) will have a discount of 150 yuan/ton compared to primary lead (standard product), starting from March 17, which will also affect the premium and discount of primary lead. The pricing mechanism has changed from "primary lead pricing" to "dual - track pricing of primary and recycled lead". When the premium of primary lead is too high, downstream users will turn to recycled lead, suppressing the premium and discount range of primary lead [9] - For trading strategies, in the lead market, there is a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. However, considering more delivery products, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the inventory of recycled lead and primary lead. It is expected that lead prices will remain weak overall [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Price and Spread: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,775 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.39%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,765 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.06%. The LME lead 3 - month contract had a closing price of 1,953 last week, with a decline of 0.36% [10] - Inventory: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,441 tons to 54,376 tons; the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 2,162 tons to 66,829 tons; the social inventory increased by 100 tons to 67,200 tons; the LME lead inventory decreased by 200 tons to 285,900 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 1.97%, an increase of 0.12% compared to the previous week [10] - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 39,263 lots, a decrease of 9,806 lots compared to the previous week, and the position was 57,675 lots, a decrease of 6,169 lots. The trading volume of the LME 3 - month lead contract was 7,266 lots, an increase of 1,755 lots, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [10] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic production of lead concentrate showed certain trends over the years. The lead concentrate inventory in Lianyungang also fluctuated. The import TC and domestic TC had their own values, and the lead smelting profit (processing) also changed over time [27][29][30] - Primary Lead and Recycled Lead: Primary lead production and the combined production of primary and recycled lead showed an upward trend in some periods. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead also changed. The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of sulfuric acid in East China, were also presented [34][35][36] - Waste Battery and Recycled Lead: The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead all had their own trends [39][40][41] - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots were presented [42] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - Battery: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased, and the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers decreased. The export volume of batteries also showed certain trends [46] - Consumption and Terminal: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles all had their own trends [48]