白糖：情绪偏多，走势偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Driven by macro factors, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The resurgence of war in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which may have a significant impact on commodity pricing. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. It is expected that the global sugar market will have a restorative increase in production and accumulate inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, which is bearish. In terms of rhythm, the output in the central - southern region of Brazil has a slight year - on - year increase, and the high - frequency data of India's sugar output has increased significantly. The New York raw sugar is trading in a low - level range. The sugar price has fallen to a phased low. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][24]. - Domestic market: The sentiment is bullish, and the trend is strong. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the domestic sugar output is expected to continue to increase. In terms of trend, Zhengzhou sugar follows the raw sugar, and in terms of rhythm, trading revolves around the import rhythm. Conventional imports remain at a relatively high level, while non - conventional imports have decreased. The cost of out - of - quota imports is lower than the domestic production cost, and the game of pricing anchor points is intense. As of the end of February, the mixed sugar production rate in Guangxi was 12.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.01 percentage points, confirming the increase in production costs in Guangxi. Attention should be paid to changes in import policies. In the short term, the sentiment of commodity price increases has spread, pushing up the price of Zhengzhou sugar [3][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - Exchange rate: The US dollar index is 98.96 (previous value: 97.64), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.29 (previous value: 5.15) [6]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $91.27 per barrel (+35.64%) [6]. 3.2 Industry Data 3.2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 14.09 cents per pound (+1.22%). The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 5,380 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,371 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract is basically flat compared with last week. CAOC expects the domestic sugar output in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value: 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value: 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons [12]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 14,986 [12]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of March 3, long positions of funds increased by 6,155 lots, short positions of funds increased by 13,388 lots, and net long positions decreased by 7,233 lots year - on - year to - 248,296 lots, with a slight decrease in net long positions [12]. 3.2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: ISO expects a supply shortage of 3.46 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previous value: shortage of 2.92 million tons) and a supply surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season (previous value: surplus of 1.63 million tons) [17]. - Brazil: According to the Unica bi - weekly production progress report, as of February 1, in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 602 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%; sugar production was 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%; alcohol production was 31.71 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.64%; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio for sugar production was 50.74%, compared with 48.14% in the same period of the previous year [18]. - India: According to ISMA/NFCSF data, as of February 28, the sugar output in India in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 24.63 million tons (+2.63 million tons). ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar output in India in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season to be 32.4 million tons (previous value: 34.35 million), of which 3.1 million tons of sugar will be consumed for ethanol, and the net sugar output will be 29.3 million tons; in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, it was 29.5 million tons (of which the net sugar output was 26.1 million tons). India has approved an additional 500,000 tons of sugar exports, and 1.5 million tons of export quotas have been approved previously [18]. - Thailand: According to OCSB data, as of February 15, the sugar output in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 350,000 tons [19]. - China: CAOC expects the domestic sugar output in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in December 2025, 580,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season were 1.76 million tons (+300,000 tons); in December 2025, a total of 70,000 tons of syrup and premixed powder were imported, and the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season were 300,000 tons (-340,000 tons) [12][19]. 3.3 Operation Suggestions - International market: Driven by macro factors, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's output and relevant industrial policies [24]. - Domestic market: The sentiment is bullish, and the trend is strong. Pay attention to changes in import policies [24].