铂钯周报-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Platinum generally follows gold and silver, showing wide - range fluctuations; palladium's high - frequency data is pessimistic. Platinum is neutral, and palladium is weak. The price ranges are 500 - 620 yuan/gram for Guangbo platinum and 380 - 450 yuan/gram for Guangbo palladium [3]. - The recent upward movement of platinum and palladium in the past month was driven by news. The specific news includes the US Commerce Department's preliminary determination of Russian unforged palladium dumping and Zimbabwe's export restrictions on raw minerals. The increase in electricity prices in South Africa is expected to raise the mining cost of platinum and palladium, but it may not linearly restrict production. High - frequency data shows internal conflicts for platinum and overall pessimism for palladium. The sector's sentiment is pessimistic due to factors such as capital flight and changes in global liquidity. Palladium is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions. For platinum, pay attention to its performance in the range of 2400 - 2500 US dollars per ounce. Arbitrage and platinum - palladium ratio strategies are recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Trading (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - Trading Volume and Position: As of the end of this week, the total position of Guangbo platinum was 27,378 lots, and the trading volume was 60,557 lots; the total position of Guangbo palladium was 9,222 lots, and the trading volume was 19,203 lots. Platinum's position decreased, while palladium's position increased slightly. The trading volumes of both platinum and palladium increased [7]. - Platinum - Palladium Ratio: This week, the platinum - palladium ratio converged rapidly as prices fell from high levels. Then, palladium's trend became weaker, and the London platinum - palladium ratio rose above 1.33. It is expected that palladium will lose its upward momentum in the short term, and the price divergence between platinum and palladium will continue [11]. - Overseas Spot - Futures Spread: For platinum, the spread between London platinum spot and NYMEX platinum main contract was inverted this week, indicating tight London spot supply. The spread between NYMEX platinum continuous and NYMEX platinum main contract widened significantly, with a weekly average of 101 US dollars per ounce. For palladium, the London palladium spot price was lower than the NYMEX palladium main contract price except on Wednesday. The spread between NYMEX palladium continuous and NYMEX palladium main contract remained stable, with a weekly average of - 30.1 US dollars per ounce [14][17]. - Arbitrage Opportunities: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.2 yuan/gram, and the spread is 8.5 yuan/gram, with little arbitrage space [20]. - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 3.8 yuan/gram, and the spread is 33.5 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 29.7 yuan/gram [22]. - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 7.4 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 10.8 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not open [24]. - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.7 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 6 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not open [26]. - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 65.2 yuan/gram, and the spread is 82.4 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 17.2 yuan/gram [28]. - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 50.4 yuan/gram, and the spread is 58.6 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 58.2 yuan/gram [30]. - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 62.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 98 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 27.9 yuan/gram [32]. - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 49.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 56.8 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 7.7 yuan/gram [34]. - Recycling Spread: This week, the platinum recycling discount converged to 80 yuan/gram, and the average palladium recycling discount remained at about 63 yuan/gram [37]. - ETF Position: This week, the platinum ETF position decreased by 0.68 tons (about 22,200 ounces), and the palladium ETF position decreased by 0.49 tons (about 15,900 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs does not currently indicate a trend reversal, and the ETF flow needs to be closely monitored [39]. Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - Forward Discount Rate: In the past four months, the overseas forward markets for platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. This week, the platinum forward discount rate continued to rise rapidly, with the 3M, 6M, and 1Y terms reaching an annualized rate of over 5%. The palladium forward structure continued to be loose, with all terms within 2% [44]. - Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased slightly to 582,440 ounces (about 18.11 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts increased slightly to 53.8% [45]. - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased slightly to 205,098 ounces (about 6.38 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 79.1% [48]. - China's Import - Export Data: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have increased significantly, and the import volume and net inflow have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 553.88 tons. In December, both import and export amounts increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. 2026 data has not been released [56]. - Palladium: Since 2020, palladium has had almost no exports and is in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, the import amount increased to 5.68 tons, and the net inflow was 5.63 tons. 2026 data has not been released [56]. - London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance: - Platinum: This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance was positive [59]. - Palladium: On March 2nd, the London palladium fixing supply - demand balance was in the - 100KG range, and the weekly average was - 6.1KG [61].