国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告-20260308

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The global LPG supply has a phased significant contraction due to the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz. PG is expected to follow the cost trend and price in geopolitical risks. The upper - pressure has been further relieved. The strategy is to hold long positions, hold calendar spreads, and hold long PP/PL and short PG positions [3]. - Propylene: The cost side is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the fundamentals remain tight. PL is expected to further rise due to increased costs and tightened supply. The strategy is to buy on dips, be cautious in inter - month structure arbitrage, and hold long PP/PL and short PG positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - Price & Spread - Geopolitical factors have made the US dollar cost trend firm, and domestic civil prices have risen, with the basis first compressed and then repaired. The prices of propane, civil gas, and imported gas have all increased to varying degrees [8]. - The FEI spot and US Gulf FOB premiums have both increased significantly, and the US Gulf - Far East arbitrage window has widened and then narrowed [23]. - Supply - The total LPG supply in the United States has decreased slightly month - on - month, but the shipment to Asia has increased compared to last week. The LPG shipment from the Middle East has decreased significantly due to the tense geopolitical situation and the blocked Strait of Hormuz [27][35]. - The total LPG commodity volume is 560,000 tons (-1.9%), including 230,000 tons of civil gas (-2.1%) and 190,000 tons of ether - after C4 (+1.0%) [55]. - Demand & Inventory - The chemical demand for LPG has increased slightly, with the PDH and MTBE operating rates both rising slightly. The domestic refinery inventory of LPG has decreased slightly, and the terminal import inventory has also changed to some extent [69][71]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Geopolitical disturbances have led to a strong increase in crude oil and propane prices, raising the cost center, and propylene has followed the upward trend. PDH profits have been compressed to the limit and then repaired, and MTO profits have been repaired [98]. - The theoretical import window for propylene has opened, but due to overseas cracking force majeure, propylene shipments are scarce. The domestic propylene price has risen due to increased costs and the release of PDH shutdown news [102][111]. - Balance Sheet - This week, new maintenance plans for several sets of equipment from March to April have been added, and the PDH operating rates in March and April across the country and in Shandong have been lowered. The demand for PP powder has partially recovered, and other downstream equipment has remained stable. The static balance in March is still tight, and the balance in April has tightened significantly compared to last week [141]. - Supply - The weekly output of propylene is 1.19 million tons (+0.8), and the operating rate is 73% (+0.5%). The operating rates of refineries, cracking units, PDH, and MTO have changed to varying degrees [145]. - The import volume of propylene in December 2025 increased by 31.87% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 92.15% month - on - month. The import profit has increased significantly [179]. - Demand - The operating rate of PP has decreased by 1.1% to 74.2%. The profits of PP from external procurement and PDH have briefly recovered and then fallen back to extreme deep losses, while the oil - based profit is neutral, the naphtha - based profit is at a low level, and the MTO - based profit is stable [183][188]. - The operating rate of PP powder has increased by 3.7% to 27.4%. The external procurement profit has briefly recovered, and some powder units have returned [205]. - The operating rate of PO has remained unchanged at 79.6%. The PO price has increased, but the profit of the chlorohydrin method has been significantly compressed, and the profit of the HPPO method has remained stable [216][220]. - The operating rate of acrylonitrile has decreased by 0.7% to 74.9%. The profit has increased by 11.02% [228]. - The operating rate of acrylic acid has decreased by 0.6% to 79.1%. The profit has been significantly repaired and returned to the high - profit range [232]. - The operating rate of n - butanol has increased by 1.0% to 86.3%. The price and profit have both increased [241]. - The operating rate of octanol has decreased by 2.0% to 95.0%. The profit has increased significantly [247]. - The operating rate of phenol - acetone has remained unchanged at 88.0%. The prices of phenol and acetone have increased, and the profit has increased by 96.19% [252]. - The operating rate of ECH has decreased by 1.74% to 54.66%. The price has increased by 6.07%, and the profit has decreased by 15.57% [260]. - Downstream Inventory - The inventories of PP production enterprises, traders, powder, and ports have remained unchanged. The in - plant inventory of acrylonitrile has increased by 0.95 tons, and the port inventories of acrylonitrile, phenol, and acetone in Jiangyin have remained unchanged [263][267].