国泰君安期货·原油周度报告-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Strait of Hormuz is difficult to resume normal operations in the short term, and continuous attention should be paid to the short - term extreme upward risks of oil prices. Brent and WTI may challenge $120 - 150 per barrel. Potential downward risks may come from macro - negative feedback [6]. - The geopolitical premium is difficult to ignore in the short term due to the Middle East conflict. The visible inventory logic in China may be subverted by geopolitical events, and the proportion of tradable inventory may decline, raising the medium - to - long - term price center. SC is not overvalued, and its strength relative to foreign markets is due to high freight rates [6]. - The company has raised the average price forecast for Brent crude oil in the second quarter of 2026 by $10 to $76 per barrel and WTI by $9 to $71 per barrel. The price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027 have also been adjusted upwards [17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - The supply side has been severely impacted by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The demand side has fallen into regional shortages and panic buying. The refined oil market is in a serious crisis, and high freight rates and demurrage fees have exacerbated regional supply tensions [6]. - Investment strategies include holding long positions in single - sided trading, holding long positions in calendar spreads and taking profits at appropriate high prices, and closing long positions in EFS spreads at appropriate high prices, while holding long positions in SC and short positions in Dubai and Brent and taking profits at appropriate times [7]. 3.2 Macro - The gold - oil ratio has declined, short - term inflation has risen, and attention should be paid to stagflation trading. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [21][22][24]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ decided at the March 1 meeting to gradually exit the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023 and implement a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day starting from April [26]. - In January, the production increase completion rate of OPEC 8 continued to decline to 60%. In February, the exports of OPEC 8 increased, with Saudi Arabia increasing by 500,000 barrels per day [30][31]. 3.4 Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the United States and Europe have rebounded, while the operating rates of major and local refineries in China have declined significantly. The global refining capacity has a net increase of 360,000 barrels per day [69][72]. 3.5 Inventory - The commercial inventory in the United States and the inventory in the Cushing area are still significantly lower than the historical average. The refining gross profit has reached a high level. China has suspended refined oil exports, and there may be shortages of naphtha and diesel globally. The global in - transit crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the global crude oil floating storage has increased. The domestic refined oil gross profit has declined [74][76][78]. 3.6 Price and Spread - The suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up freight rates and oil prices. The spot price difference of Platts Dubai crude oil has reached a record high. The backwardation of futures spreads has increased significantly [91][101].