贝壳-W（02423）：4Q利润承压,1-2月存量房边际改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 27% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q4 2025, amounting to 22.8 billion RMB, with significant declines in existing homes, new homes, home decoration, and rental income [1]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to decrease by 64% year-on-year to 4.8 billion RMB [1]. - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in the brokerage business in Q1 2026, driven by a decrease in second-hand housing listings, which may alleviate downward pressure on housing prices [1]. - For 2026, the brokerage business is expected to expand its market share by 1-2.5 percentage points, with significant profit margin recovery anticipated [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to +0.1% for 2025, -6.2% for 2026, and -9.6% for 2027, primarily due to limited upside in the brokerage business's take rate and a slight slowdown in market share expansion [11][13]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 12.9%, 14.3%, and 20.9% to 5.02 billion RMB, 6.3 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB respectively [11][13]. Business Segment Performance - The existing home transaction services are expected to see a revenue decline of 34% year-on-year in Q4, while new home transaction services are projected to decline by 37% [3][12]. - The rental business is expected to show resilience, with a revenue decline of only 2% in Q4, and an anticipated addition of 200,000 to 300,000 rental units in 2026 [4]. - The home decoration segment is undergoing structural adjustments, with a revenue decline of 8% expected in Q4 [5]. Market Conditions - Recent policy changes in Shanghai are expected to boost market confidence, with the second-hand housing market showing resilience despite a 4% decline in transaction area across 22 cities [2]. - The new home market is showing signs of marginal improvement, with a 32% year-on-year decline in transaction area for 44 cities, a slight improvement from the 37% decline in Q4 [2]. Valuation - The target prices for the company's stock are set at 21.85 USD for the US market and 56.07 HKD for the Hong Kong market, corresponding to a 27.8 times PE ratio for 2026, which is above the global comparable company's average of 22.8 times [15][16].