美伊冲突的影响：从应激到修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share market shows significant endogenous resilience after a brief shock caused by the deterioration of global liquidity expectations triggered by the US - Iran conflict. The market has shifted from "over - stress" to the "passivation period" regarding external shocks, and the stock price repair window has opened [1]. - The market has a "high - low switch caused by panic venting" feature this week, with high - beta sectors such as electronics, computers, and media experiencing a sharp decline, creating a "golden pit." The mainstream funds' confidence in the long - term logic of the electronics sector remains unchanged, and high turnover indicates the potential for a rebound [1]. - In the future, a composite allocation of "defensive base, technological offense" should be maintained. The increase in resource prices may slow down the market repair slope but will not change the direction. It is recommended to opportunistically replenish sectors with endogenous growth power such as electronics, power equipment, and basic chemicals [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Panic Emotions Have Been Digested, Entering the "Passivation Period" of External Risks - On February 28, the US - Iran conflict led to a sharp decline in the market on March 2. High - beta sectors like electronics and computers became the main pressure areas. However, as market emotions were fully traded, the A - share market became less sensitive to external shocks, and the market logic shifted back to internal growth [7]. - On March 5, the A - share trading volume declined, but the market began to rebound, indicating that the market's reaction to the geopolitical conflict has entered the "passivation period" [7]. 3.2 This Week's "High - Low Switch Caused by Panic Emotions Venting" Feature Is Obvious - From the perspective of industry excess returns and relative turnover this week, the A - share industry shows a "high - low switch caused by panic emotions venting" feature. High - growth technology sectors such as electronics, computers, and media had a "sharp decline with heavy volume," and their relative turnover was close to or more than 2 times. The panic emotions have been fully released, and the future repair space is gradually opening up [9]. - Sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, coal, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals are in the area of high relative turnover and excess returns. Funds have shifted to defensive and low - priced sectors, especially the petroleum and petrochemical sector, which has attracted market funds due to rising oil prices [9]. 3.3 Sector Logic: Oversold Repair and Rotation to Compensatory Growth - This week, there was no clear main line in industry rotation, with obvious "alternating rise and fall" among industries. Some growth sectors were irrationally sold off at the beginning of the week, but on March 5 - 6, the market began to repair, and sectors such as electronics, basic chemicals, and power equipment rebounded [11][12]. - The over - defensive behavior at the beginning of the week caused the valuation of the technology main line to deviate extremely in the short term, creating a "golden pit" for subsequent rational regression [11]. 3.4 ETF Fund Flows: Driven by Prosperity and Technological Resilience - In addition to the petroleum and petrochemical sector attracting over 6.5 billion yuan in funds this week, traditional defensive sectors such as coal and banks also absorbed market funds. At the same time, funds also flowed significantly into sectors with both growth and oversold repair attributes, such as satellite and pharmaceutical sectors. The satellite ETF and pharmaceutical ETF had net inflows of 1.241 billion yuan and 311 million yuan respectively this week, indicating that some sensitive funds are shifting from simple hedging to "defensive base + low - position layout" [15]. 3.5 Hold on to the Technology Main Line and Pay Attention to the Sustainability of Compensatory Growth - As external shocks gradually become less influential and the market enters a critical window of shock bottom - building, the layout direction can return to the core main line. The technology growth sectors, especially electronics, computers, and media, had a sharp decline under external pressure, but the high turnover rate indicates the extreme release of emotions. The market's confidence in the long - term logic of the electronics sector remains unchanged, and it is recommended to opportunistically replenish technology core assets with endogenous growth power [17]. - The future repair slope depends on the market's expectations of the cost side. Although the rise in resource prices may slow down the rebound rhythm, it will not change the direction. A composite strategy of "defensive base, technological offense" should be maintained, and attention should be paid to the stable rise of the market center of gravity after the trading volume declines [17].