铁矿石周度报告-20260308

Report Title - Iron Ore Weekly Report [1] Report Date - March 8, 2026 [2] Report Analyst - Li Yafei, Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core View - The transportation cost has increased, leading to a slight rebound in iron ore prices. The iron ore supply and demand are loose. The previous 05 contract fell to the cost support of around $90/ton, and further decline requires the falsification of steel demand, which has not occurred yet. Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, the energy cost has increased significantly, driving the expected rebound of ore prices [3][5] Summary by Directory Iron Ore Supply - Global shipments reached 33.407 million tons, a 0.6% increase from last week and a 1.6% decrease from the same period last year. Australian shipments were 18.797 million tons, a 4.5% decrease from last week and a 2.9% decrease from the same period last year. Brazilian shipments were 7.377 million tons, a 7.4% increase from last week and a 7.3% decrease from the same period last year [4] - The arrivals at 45 ports were 21.469 million tons, a 0.3% decrease from last week and a 19.1% increase from the same period last year [4] - The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines is at a high level. The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels. Domestic mines have resumed production after the holiday, and the output has increased [15][20][22][33] Iron Ore Demand - The iron water output was 2.2759 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from last week and a 1.3% decrease from the same period last year. Due to northern production restrictions, low steel mill profits, and slow iron water resumption, the demand expectation is poor, and the replenishment demand trading is completed. The demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4][34][38][39] - The high - medium grade price spread and the lump - powder price spread have widened. The cost - performance of scrap steel is lower than that of iron water [44][45] Iron Ore Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports was 171.1786 million tons, a 0.2% increase from last week and a 17.4% increase from the same period last year. In the context of weak demand expectations, steel mills are expected to purchase on demand, and Australian ore inventory has increased significantly [4][47][50] Iron Ore Price Spread - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 764 (+13) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 772 (+22) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 23 (-8) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 25.5 (+6) yuan/ton. The near - month transportation cost has increased, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended [6][10] Iron Ore Cost - Oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in freight costs [53]