镍：矿端偏紧支撑现实，冶炼累库限制弹性不锈钢：宏观风险偏好扰动，现实成本重心上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while the accumulation of smelting inventory limits price elasticity. In the short - term, trading is mainly based on the current mine - end contradictions, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips relying on the pyrometallurgical cost. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the supply elasticity of the Philippines and the second - round supplementary quota in Indonesia [1]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center has shifted upwards. In March, it is advisable to try long positions at low levels in the range, while being vigilant about macro risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Nickel: Indonesia is implementing various resource management measures, and the APNI Association mentioned a possible 30% quota revision in the middle of the year, which reduces the enthusiasm of speculative funds. In March, the total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore increased by $25 year - on - year to $70, and the integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost rose to 130,000 yuan/ton. If the mine - end contradictions fade in the middle of the year, there may be a logic of hydrometallurgy replacing pyrometallurgical marginal cost [1]. - Stainless Steel: The conflict between the US and Iran has a negative impact on the global economy. The consumption of stainless steel in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. The market risk preference has decreased, and overseas inflation and interest - rate cut expectations are disturbed. The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel itself is not significant. High - price stimulation has led to an increase in stainless steel production in March, and the cost logic support for stainless steel has shifted upwards [2]. 3.2. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On March 6, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 4,730 tons to 81,349 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 426 tons to 287,550 tons [3][4]. - New Energy: On March 6, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by 0, - 2, 0 month - on - month to 5, 7, 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 13.3 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.1 month - on - month to 7.3 days [4]. - Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel: On March 5, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 10% month - on - month to 133,000 metal tons. In February, the SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.65 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 10%/8%. On March 5, the stainless steel social inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% [4]. 3.3. Market News - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [5]. - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months [5]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons [5]. - Philippine miners said the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [6]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [6]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota was cut by 70% compared with 2025 [7]. - Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated the nickel ore production in 2026 to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of nickel - iron and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [7]. - The APNI Association said the revised RKAB in 2026 may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% and is expected to be approved in July [8]. 3.4. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain, such as the price of 1 imported nickel, the premium of nickel beans, and the price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils [10].