豆粕：盘面偏强，关注中东局势变化；豆一：稳中偏强，关注市场整体情绪波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Next week (March 9 - 13, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East situation to prevent the prices from rising too high and then falling back and to guard against risks [6]. - For soybean meal, the fundamentals are mainly marginally favorable, such as the slow harvesting in Brazil, the uncertainty of the weather in South American producing areas, and the market's expectation that the March supply - demand report will be slightly positive. The current market focus is on the sharp rise in crude oil prices brought about by the Middle East situation, which drives up the price of US soybeans and provides cost - side support for soybean meal. There is also uncertainty about whether the Middle East situation will delay the arrival of imported soybeans in China. The sentiment in the soybean meal market is strong [6]. - For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The futures market should pay attention to the overall market sentiment fluctuations and guard against risks [6]. 3. Summary by Related Contents International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean sales and shipment: In the week of February 26, 2026, the weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current year (2025/26) were about 380,000 tons (about 410,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales in the next market year (2026/27) were 0 (0 in the previous week). The total of the two was about 380,000 tons (about 410,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were about 150,000 tons (about 75,000 tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 1.082 million tons. In terms of shipment, the export shipment of US soybeans in 2025/26 was about 1.12 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 38% and a year - on - year increase of about 53%. The cumulative export shipment of US soybeans in 2025/26 was about 26.15 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 30% [1]. - Brazilian soybean import cost: As of the week of March 6, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - Brazilian soybean harvest progress: As of the week of February 26, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 was 39%, compared with 50% in the same period last year. Continuous rainfall has hindered the harvest work, and the current harvest progress is the lowest since the 2020/21 season. The consulting agency AgRural predicted that the Brazilian soybean output in 2025/26 would be 178 million tons, 3 million tons lower than the prediction on January 26 due to the dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul [1]. - Market expectation for the USDA supply - demand report: The market expects that the USDA's March supply - demand report will slightly reduce the estimated ending inventory of US soybeans, the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans may be reduced from 180 million tons last month to 179.2 million tons, and the estimated output of Argentine soybeans may be reduced from 48.5 million tons to 48.1 million tons. The report is expected to be slightly positive, but the actual situation depends on the USDA report [1]. - Weather forecast in South American soybean - producing areas: According to the weather forecast on March 6, in the next two weeks (March 7 - 21, 2026), there will be more precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil. In terms of temperature, the temperature in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly higher from March 7 - 10 and March 15 - 21. In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be low first and then high (lower from March 7 - 11 and higher from March 13 - 20). The current weather in South American producing areas has a neutral - to - slightly - positive impact, and continuous attention should be paid to weather changes [3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China's mainstream oil mills was about 90,000 tons, compared with about 40,000 tons in the week before the Spring Festival [4]. - Pick - up volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 158,000 tons, compared with about 110,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 216 yuan/ton, compared with about 270 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 684 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the inventory of soybean meal in China's mainstream oil mills was about 650,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of about 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 17% [4]. - Soybean crushing volume: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.83 million tons (590,000 tons in the previous week and 1.52 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 50% (16% in the previous week and 43% in the same period last year). Next week (March 7 - 13, 2026), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.07 million tons (1.63 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate will be 57% (46% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market - Soybean price: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas was in the range of 4,520 - 4,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the inland areas, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 5,020 - 5,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,840 - 5,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - Purchase in the Northeast production area: After the Lantern Festival, farmers in the Northeast were still reluctant to sell and asked for higher prices. Large - scale trading entities such as COFCO's Kedong, Wudalianchi, and Keshan warehouses started to purchase domestic soybeans, which supported the surrounding spot prices. Most traders said that the speed of shipping to the market had slowed down, and they purchased cautiously according to orders [5]. - Price adjustment in the sales area: The loading price in the production area increased, and the selling price of dealers was adjusted accordingly. However, due to fierce market competition and normal - to - slow trading, the increase was smaller than that in the production area. The start of schools in March slightly boosted the demand for terminal soy products [5].