碳酸锂：供需依旧向好，关注后续需求情况

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures declined, and the basis weakened. The 2605 contract closed at 156,160 yuan/ton, down 19,880 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2607 contract closed at 156,420 yuan/ton, down 20,180 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price dropped 16,750 yuan/ton to 155,250 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) weakened by 300 yuan/ton to - 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. - The domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, mainly from spodumene and salt lake sources. Overseas, Zimbabwe has suspended the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates. In 2025, China imported 6.209 million tons of lithium concentrates, with 1.191 million tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 19.1%. In 2026, Zimbabwe is expected to supply 177,000 tons of LCE, accounting for 8.1% of global resources [3]. - Short - term demand is strong. The energy storage market is less affected by geopolitical events, and the rising oil and gas prices will increase lithium battery demand. However, the sulfur transportation problem in the Middle East will affect the production of cathode materials and suppress lithium prices. The production schedule of cathode material factories in March has increased month - on - month, and the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in March is expected to remain high [4]. - This week, lithium carbonate continued to be destocked, with the destocking amplitude narrowing. The industry inventory was 99,373 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from last week [5]. - From the supply side, there are still disruptions such as high domestic supply and Zimbabwe's export restrictions. From the demand side, the production schedule in March remains high overall, and downstream enterprises are currently stocked up to mid - March with further stocking plans. The market is more concerned about the change in demand, especially the sales volume of new energy vehicles in March after the release of new models. The fundamental strength will support the bottom of the market. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the main futures contract price expected to range from 140,000 to 180,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side - Lithium Ore - The domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the spodumene and salt lake sectors. Overseas, Zimbabwe's government has suspended the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates. The duration of the ban may be 1 - 4 weeks, and the export application review at the end of March should be monitored [3]. 3. Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side - Lithium Salt Products - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot has declined this week, and the basis has weakened. The production of lithium carbonate has increased, while inventory has continued to be destocked, and the destocking amplitude has narrowed [2][3][5]. 4. Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The short - term demand for lithium carbonate is strong. The energy storage market has many中标 projects, and the production schedule of cathode material factories in March has increased month - on - month. The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is expected to remain high [4].