锌产业链周度报告-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state where the supply - side contradiction will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is at its end, with global zinc ore production growth slowing down. The most relaxed stage of zinc ore supply has passed, and a tight - balance state may become the norm. In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure, but downstream demand is gradually recovering. The Middle East tension has increased zinc price volatility, and there may be mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Price: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,260, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,330, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,323, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 133,335, an increase of 28,787 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 85,316, a decrease of 9,558 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 11,823, an increase of 1,481 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 222,533, a decrease of 3,899 compared to the previous week [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 76,450, an increase of 6,785 compared to the previous week; SHFE total zinc inventory was 134,921, an increase of 8,869 compared to the previous week; social inventory was 256,300, an increase of 36,400 compared to the previous week; LME zinc inventory was 94,975, a decrease of 2,375 compared to the previous week; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [9]. - Profit: Zinc ore mining enterprises' profits are stable and at a historical high, smelting profits are stable but at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are recovering but at a low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - Capacity Utilization: Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Refined zinc capacity utilization has increased and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization have increased but are at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: Spot premiums have declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M declining [17][19]. - Spread: The contango structure of SHFE zinc has widened [22]. - Inventory: There has been a significant inventory build - up this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with total LME inventory continuously decreasing, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has declined to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [26][32][34]. - Futures: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level compared to the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have significantly increased, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level compared to the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw - material inventory has rebounded from a low level [38][39]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [40]. - Imports and Exports: Refined zinc imports and exports are presented in relevant data, and refined zinc import losses are shown in the data [42]. - Recycled Zinc Raw Materials: Data on the capacity utilization of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, scrap - steel consumption of steel mills, and the prices of recycled zinc - related raw materials are provided [44][45][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - Consumption: The growth rate of refined zinc consumption is positive, but the downstream monthly capacity utilization has slightly declined and is mostly at a low level compared to the same period in history [50][54]. - Downstream Raw - Material and Finished - Product Inventories: Data on downstream raw - material and finished - product inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are provided [56][60][61]. - Terminal Demand: The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [65]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural - gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and European zinc - smelter profit - and - loss situations are provided [67][68][69][70].