锡周报-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term tight pattern of tin has not changed, and there is an expectation of stabilizing and rebounding. The price range is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton. The decline in tin prices this week is mainly due to the impact of the Iran conflict on macro - risk appetite and the expectation of复产. Although there are some negative factors such as the news of Myanmar's Wa State resuming production, the current macro - risk appetite has stabilized, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged, downstream demand has been released, and tin prices still have the possibility of stabilizing and rebounding, but attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts and the trend of macro - risk appetite [3][6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was - 120 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 1,000 yuan/ton. Overseas, the Rotterdam premium has risen recently, while the Baltimore premium has declined [10][15] - Spread: This week, the tin inter - month structure maintained a C - structure [19] - Inventory: This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 27 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,171 tons. The LME inventory increased slightly, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose to 7.78% [27][32] - Funds: As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 3.58723 billion yuan, and the funds flowed in in the past 10 days [36] - Transaction and Position: This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased, while the trading volume and open interest of LME tin increased. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined [38][43][48] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In December 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 5,335 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.90%; the import volume was 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan rose to 16,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level rebounded [52][54] - Smelting: In February 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 11,490 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.22%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 57.99%, showing an increase compared with last week [59][61] - Import: In December 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 9,721 yuan/ton [69] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Use) - Consumption Volume: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [77] - Tin Materials: This week, the downstream processing fee declined. The operating rate of solder enterprises in February dropped to 39%. In December, the output of major tin - plated sheet enterprises increased slightly, while the sales volume decreased slightly [79] - End - Use Consumption: In December 2025, the end - product output performed well, with the monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increasing. The household appliance consumption rebounded month - on - month, while the automobile consumption declined month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined [86][88][94]