一周全球宏观与资产复盘：警惕油价上涨催化滞胀预期

Global Market Overview - The Iranian situation has significantly impacted both domestic and overseas assets, with commodities like oil, natural gas, and aluminum experiencing sharp increases due to geopolitical tensions[10] - Brent crude oil prices surged to $94 per barrel, driven by disruptions in global oil supply and the near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz[12] - Major global stock markets, including the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea, faced notable declines, with the KOSPI index dropping over 12% in a single day, marking its largest daily decline ever[20] Domestic Market Insights - Domestic commodity prices rose across the board, including rebar, iron ore, and coal, influenced by overseas market trends and the upcoming Two Sessions[11] - The A-share market showed resilience compared to overseas markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining only 0.93% while sectors like oil, gas, and coal performed strongly[11] - The People's Bank of China implemented measures to manage rapid currency appreciation, resulting in a slight depreciation of the RMB against the USD[11] Economic Data and Policy Review - February's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[14] - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.5%, reflecting a modest recovery in the service sector[14] - The government set a more pragmatic economic growth target of 4.5%-5.0% for 2026, with a fiscal deficit target of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year[18] Asset Performance and Recommendations - Energy and resource sectors are recommended for investment due to their strong performance amid geopolitical tensions, while defensive sectors like precious metals and consumer staples should also be considered[12] - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 18 basis points, reflecting increased inflation expectations and a narrowing of rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve[10] - In the commodities market, WTI crude oil saw a weekly increase of 35.63%, while precious metals like silver and gold faced declines of 9.63% and 1.70%, respectively[27]