国泰君安期货·能源化工，合成橡胶周度报告-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run strongly, with cost increases driving the upward trend. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to increased uncertainty in the crude oil and shipping sectors, driving up production costs and mainstream supply prices. The inventory of synthetic rubber is expected to decline, and the price is expected to run strongly in the short term [2][4]. - The butadiene market is also expected to run strongly, with the improvement of the domestic butadiene fundamentals. The short - term supply of butadiene is affected by the maintenance of some devices, and the demand from downstream industries such as synthetic rubber, ABS, and SBS also shows different trends [5]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint - Supply: Most cis - butadiene rubber plants maintained high - load operation this week, with Yanshan Petrochemical's plant not at full load. Haopu New Materials and Zhejiang Transfar's cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to be overhauled in mid - to late March. The capacity utilization rate of mainstream cis - butadiene rubber plants is expected to decline slightly next week [4]. - Demand: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to increase slightly next week, but the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR contracts has shrunk rapidly, and the substitution demand for synthetic rubber is expected to weaken rapidly [4]. - Inventory: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80%. It is expected that the inventory of Chinese high - cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises will continue to decline next week [4]. - Valuation: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 14,800 - 16,000 yuan/ton. The geopolitical conflict has increased speculative sentiment, and the upper - limit valuation pressure has decreased. The lower - limit valuation is supported by the cost line of cis - butadiene rubber [4]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, cis - butadiene rubber is expected to run strongly. Geopolitical conflicts may increase the intraday volatility of the market, and investors are advised to manage risks [4]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, it is short - term bullish, with the upper pressure at 15,800 - 16,000 yuan/ton and the lower support at 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the position of short NR/RU and long BR is still in the driving stage and can be held [4]. Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint - Supply: The weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises this week was estimated to be 121,500 tons, with little change from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. Next week, the weekly output is expected to be about 119,500 tons, a slight decrease from this week, mainly due to the maintenance plans of Gulei Petrochemical and Inner Mongolia Jiutai [5]. - Demand: In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a high - level demand for butadiene. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants increases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to decline gradually. ABS has a large inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited increment. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and its demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [5]. - Inventory: The domestic butadiene inventory decreased slightly this week, with the sample total inventory decreasing by 1.63% month - on - month. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.19% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 1.82% week - on - week. The market expects that the import volume in March may not increase significantly [5]. - Viewpoint: The price of butadiene in Asia is strong. Overall, the domestic butadiene fundamentals have improved, and butadiene is short - term bullish [5]. Butadiene Fundamentals - Capacity: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages. From 2024 to 2026, many new butadiene production capacities have been put into operation or are planned to be put into operation [12][14]. - Supply - side - Operating Rate: The report provides historical data on the weekly operating rate of Chinese butadiene, showing its changing trend over the years [16]. - Supply - side - Production: The report provides historical data on the weekly production of Chinese butadiene, showing its changing trend over the years [17]. - Supply - side - Maintenance: The report lists the maintenance situations of many butadiene production enterprises from 2024 to 2026, including the maintenance capacity, start - stop time, etc. [18]. - Net Import Volume: The report provides historical data on the monthly import and export volume of butadiene in China, as well as the net import volume and import profit situation [19][20][21]. - Demand - side - Cis - Butadiene: The capacity of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [24]. - Demand - side - Styrene - Butadiene: The capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 180,000 tons in 2025 and 100,000 tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [26][27]. - Demand - side - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Operating and Maintenance: The report lists the operating and future maintenance plans of many styrene - butadiene rubber production enterprises [33]. - Demand - side - ABS: The capacity of ABS increased by an estimated 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [34][36]. - Demand - side - SBS: The capacity of SBS increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [38][39]. - Demand - side - ABS and SBS Fundamentals: The report provides historical data on the weekly operating rate, daily net profit, weekly inventory of ABS polymers in China, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of SBS in China [41][42]. - Inventory - side: The report provides historical data on the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene in China [43][44][45]. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production: The report provides historical data on the weekly production and daily operating rate of Chinese high - cis - butadiene rubber, and lists the operating and future maintenance plans of many cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises [50][51]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit: The report provides historical data on the daily theoretical production cost, daily theoretical production profit, and daily gross profit margin of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber [53][54][55]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export: The report provides historical data on the monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber, as well as the weekly apparent demand of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber [57][58][59]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory: The report provides historical data on the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber [61][62]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires: The report provides historical data on the inventory and operating rate of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province [63][64].