宏观周度观察：从两会看“质”的落点-20260308

Group 1: Economic Growth and Quality Focus - The 2026 GDP growth target has shifted from "around 5%" to a range of "4.5%-5%", indicating a focus on quality over quantity[14] - The proportion of new quality productivity projects in the "15th Five-Year Plan" has significantly increased compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan", supporting the goal of enhancing quality and efficiency[14] Group 2: Social Welfare and Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on improving and safeguarding people's livelihoods has been prioritized over green development in the 2026 government work report[15] - The fiscal deficit target remains at around 4%, but the implicit GDP deflator index has improved compared to last year, indicating a higher demand for price stability in 2026[22] Group 3: Recent Economic Data and Trends - The manufacturing PMI for February dropped to 49% due to the Spring Festival effect, but both supply and demand sides performed better than seasonal expectations[24] - The new order index and production index for February PMI showed declines of 0.6 percentage points and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, but these declines were less than seasonal fluctuations[57] Group 4: Upcoming Events and Risks - Key upcoming events include the release of February inflation data on March 9 and the closure of the 14th National People's Congress on March 12[60] - Risks include unexpected changes in the external environment, slower-than-expected policy implementation, and discrepancies in economic structural adjustments[68]