Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-08 10:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on metal prices, which have shown a mixed performance. Precious metals are expected to experience price fluctuations, while industrial metals are projected to see a gradual price increase due to stable supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.22%. The non-ferrous metals index dropped by 5.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.40 percentage points [3]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 18.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 17.71 percentage points [3]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals prices have varied, with LME copper down by 3.61%, aluminum up by 9.75%, and lithium prices down by 10.40% for battery-grade carbonate [2][14]. - The report notes significant price changes in various metals, including a 13.27% drop in tin and a 10.27% decrease in silver prices [14]. Precious Metals - The report discusses the U.S. labor market, noting a decrease in non-farm payrolls and an increase in unemployment rates, which may influence precious metal prices. The expectation is for gold prices to trend upwards in the long term due to low central bank reserves in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][22]. - The gold-silver ratio is currently at 62.3, indicating potential for silver demand recovery [23]. Industrial Metals - Copper supply is expected to remain tight, with domestic social inventory increasing to 577,000 tons. The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum for investment opportunities [31]. - Aluminum production is projected to continue its upward trend, with downstream processing rates increasing to 59.50%. The report recommends companies with integrated operations such as Tianshan Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum [47][48]. Steel Industry - The steel production has seen a week-on-week increase, with a focus on monitoring supply-side adjustments and seasonal demand. Companies like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel are highlighted for their stable dividend attributes [21]. Small Metals - The report notes tight supply conditions for cobalt and lithium, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium recommended for investment [18][19]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, valuation levels may rise, recommending stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, with companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium as potential investment targets [2].