GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-08 10:43Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Historical review indicates that geopolitical conflicts may stabilize seasonal price declines and elevate average prices [3] - The geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have intensified, exceeding market expectations, leading to high oil and natural gas prices, which are expected to continue rising and influence energy prices [4] - The international coal price has increased by 20% due to the surge in natural gas prices, raising expectations for global coal demand amid high energy prices [4] - Domestic supply remains stable, but the significant rise in overseas coal prices may lead to a reduction in imports, potentially lifting domestic seasonal coal price bottoms [4] - The peak supply-demand pressure is expected to end around March-April, with a subsequent increase in electricity coal demand starting in May [4] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of February 27, 2026, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 749 CNY/ton, up 27 CNY/ton (3.7%) from the previous week [4] - Domestic supply remains stable, with a slight decrease in imports expected throughout the year [4] - Demand during the off-season is showing significant improvement, with Q3 profits expected to rebound [4] Coking Coal Data Tracking - As of February 27, 2026, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [4] - Daily iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong [4] Inventory and Price Trends - As of March 6, 2026, Jingtang Port's main coking coal price is 1610 CNY/ton, down 5.3% from the previous week, with total coking coal inventory at three ports at 2.612 million tons, down 1.6% [4] - The price of Australian Newcastle Q5500 coal has increased by 2 USD/ton (1.7%), while domestic coal remains cheaper than imported coal by 85 CNY/ton [4] Long-term Price Agreements - The annual long-term price for Q5500 thermal coal at Northern Ports is 682 CNY/ton, up 2 CNY/ton (0.3%) from the previous month [30] - The comprehensive trading price for Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 695 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton (0.7%) from the previous week [30] Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the market last week, with the coal sector rising by 3.50% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93% [69] - Notable gainers include Baofeng Energy (19.64%) and Zhongmei Energy (14.24%) [69]