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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The macro - situation is affected by Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and overseas inflation concerns, and the strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector. The domestic lead market is in a deep game between increasing supply and strong cost support. The lead price is restricted by high visible inventory and slow consumption recovery on the upside, and is supported by the deep losses of secondary lead on the downside, resulting in a weak and volatile pattern near the cost line [1]. - In the short - term, due to the approaching delivery week of the SHFE lead 2603 contract, the spot market is in a stalemate, and the futures market has a risk of a downward correction. In the long - term, the lead market is in a tug - of - war between the peak of traditional demand and raw material supply bottlenecks, and the lead price will be confined within a narrow range [7][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro factors: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict and overseas inflation concerns have led to an increase in energy and shipping costs, strengthening inflation and raising expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector [1]. - Industry factors: The primary lead smelters have resumed production and increased output after the holiday, but the import concentrate processing fee is extremely low at - 145 dollars/ton. The secondary lead sector faces shortages of scrap battery raw materials and deep losses, with small and medium - sized enterprises losing over 500 yuan per ton, which slows down the resumption of production. Although the downstream lead battery enterprises' weekly operating rate has risen to 71.68%, the post - holiday提货 is mainly through long - term contracts, and the spot trading is weak. The SMM five - region social inventory has slightly increased to 67,200 tons, and the de - stocking expectation has been repeatedly disappointed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see. The lead price is restricted by delivery inventory accumulation on the upside and supported by secondary lead losses on the downside, resulting in a poor risk - reward ratio [12]. - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options (such as selling out - of - the - money call and put options) to short volatility and earn time value [12]. - Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period reverse arbitrage (buy far and sell near). The near - month delivery pressure is prominent, while the far - month has expectations of supply tightening and peak seasons [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Lead price volatility: The latest price is 16,775 yuan/ton, the predicted range is 16,300 - 17,700 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 8.51%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 16.6% [13]. - Lead risk management recommendations: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short the SHFE lead main futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton; for raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and worried about price increase, long the SHFE lead main futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 16,000 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish drivers: The latest import lead concentrate processing fee is - 145 dollars/ton (previous value: - 150 dollars/ton), and it is expected to be difficult to rebound; small and medium - sized secondary lead enterprises have a comprehensive profit and loss of - 543 yuan/ton, indicating deep losses in the secondary lead sector; the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead batteries has risen to 71.68% (previous value: 29.26%) [14]. - Bearish drivers: The SMM five - region lead ingot social inventory has increased to 67,200 tons (previous value: 64,000 tons), and the visible inventory has accumulated; the soaring oil price has impacted the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the expectation of no interest rate cuts has increased, putting pressure on the macro - sentiment [14]. - Spot transaction information: The latest daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16,625 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.3% [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic: In early March, China's February CPI annual rate; on March 17, the revision of the SHFE lead futures contract and the implementation of a 150 - yuan/ton discount for secondary lead substitutes [15]. - International: In mid - March, the US February unadjusted CPI annual rate and the January core PCE price index annual rate [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The lead price closed at 16,775 yuan/ton this week. Currently, the profitable seats are mainly short in net positions [16]. - International market: As of 15:00 this Friday, the LME lead price was 1,948.5 dollars/ton [20]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The SHFE lead term structure shows certain price differences in different contracts; the LME lead maintains a C structure [19][37]. 3.3.3 Internal - External Price Difference Tracking - There are seasonal changes in the lead spot import profit and loss, and there are also certain relationships between the SHFE lead main contract closing price and the LME lead closing price [40]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - There are changes in the primary lead processing fee, and there is a relationship between the monthly output of SMM lead concentrate and the domestic lead concentrate processing fee [42]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - There are relationships between the lead concentrate import profit and loss and import volume, and there are seasonal changes in the import and export volume of lead - related products such as lead concentrate, refined lead, and lead batteries [44]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - There are seasonal changes in the total domestic lead ingot supply and the monthly actual consumption of lead ingots [48]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - There are changes in the monthly output of lead concentrate, global lead ore output, electrolytic lead monthly output, and secondary refined lead monthly output, and there are also seasonal characteristics [50][51]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - There are seasonal changes in the lead battery operating rate, and there are also differences in the monthly and weekly operating rates of different types and regions of lead batteries. There are also seasonal changes in the import and export volume and inventory days of lead batteries [59][60][62].