南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：基本面变化不大，观察情绪-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include expectations for post - holiday demand and macro - policies for float glass, and the unchanged expectation of oversupply for soda ash. The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended [1]. - The short - term trading logic for glass focuses on cold - repair and ignition expectations, while for soda ash, it follows the marginal cost. The long - term trading expectations involve changes in supply, demand verification, and cost logic [2]. - The overall demand for glass is weak, with both cold - repair and ignition expectations and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, and its price elasticity is limited. The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before approaching delivery, and the fundamentals lack clear drivers [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - For float glass, short - term expectations are about post - holiday demand, and medium - to long - term are about macro - policies. Current supply and demand show a decline in daily melting to 14.86 tons, unexpected Spring Festival inventory accumulation, and high middle - stream inventory. New ignition plans also limit the price increase. Demand needs verification [1]. - Soda ash has limited valuation elasticity due to the unchanged oversupply expectation. It can only follow the cost. A price increase requires supply or cost "stories", and a decrease needs rapid inventory accumulation of upstream manufacturers [1]. - In reality, the high middle - stream inventory of glass needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended, remaining in an oversupply situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Glass has weak overall demand, with cold - repair and ignition expectations and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, and its price elasticity is limited [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before approaching delivery, and the fundamentals lack clear drivers [6]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The average spot price increased by 10 yuan on March 7, 2026, compared with the previous day. The 05 - contract price increased by 3.03%, the 09 - contract by 2.58%, and the 01 - contract by 2.37% [9]. - Soda Ash: The 05 - contract price increased by 1.39%, the 09 - contract by 1.41%, and the 01 - contract by 0.99% on March 6, 2026, compared with the previous day [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Some glass production lines still have cold - repair expectations in March [12]. - Negative Information: There are ignition expectations for glass in Shahe in March. High middle - stream inventory of glass persists, and the far - month demand expectation has no elasticity. Soda ash production is at a high level, maintaining supply pressure [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. - Glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transaction conditions [14]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The expectation of the glass 05 - contract is unclear, with weak supply and demand and no clear signal. Near - term spot pressure is high, and middle - stream inventory is high. There may be cost - increasing expectations in the far - month, but demand is unclear [15]. Basis and Spread Structure - Glass: The 5 - 9 spread fluctuates mainly in a range, with unclear supply - demand expectations and funds on the sidelines [19]. - Soda Ash: It maintains a C - structure, with industrial contradictions accumulating and the long - term oversupply pattern unchanged [20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits or are at the break - even point [35]. - Soda Ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1200 - 1220 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [35]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 8 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand. Some glass products have good exports [42]. - Soda Ash: The monthly average net export is 18 - 21 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand. The export in December exceeded 23 tons, maintaining high expectations [42]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - Glass: The daily melting of glass has declined to below 14.9 tons. There are still some cold - repair and ignition production lines to be realized in March, and the rhythm may depend more on prices [48]. - Soda Ash: The current daily production is 11.5 - 11.7 tons, and the weekly production is over 80 tons, reaching a historical high. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance of some soda ash manufacturers [53]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Glass: Middle - stream inventory remains high, and spot pressure exists. Downstream processing plants are gradually resuming work, with inventory increasing and appropriate procurement of raw sheets. It is in the demand recovery period with high middle - stream inventory [55][56]. - Soda Ash: The daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass totals 23.64 tons, with a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 4.73 tons, showing a stable - to - weak trend. Photovoltaic glass has a high finished - product inventory, with over 40 days of inventory. Cold - repair and ignition coexist in the photovoltaic sector. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable - to - weak, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [66][67]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 79.637 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.629 million heavy boxes (+4.77%) and a year - on - year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days are 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days from the previous period. The inventory in Shahe continues to rise [76]. - Soda Ash: The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 194.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.28 tons. Among them, light soda ash is 102.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.88 tons, and heavy soda ash is 91.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [76].