国泰君安期货·能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for the current week regarding offset printing paper. The market is subject to many short - term external disturbances, and the implementation of price increase letters in the domestic market needs further observation. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term, and short positions can be closed at an appropriate time [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of double - coated paper increased by 0.14% compared to last Thursday, with the week - on - week increase narrowing by 1.93 percentage points. Most downstream printing plants that had shut down have resumed operation, and the market has basically returned to normal trading. Paper mills' shipment speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation during the week is limited. - This week, the operating load rate of double - coated paper was 55.10%, a week - on - week increase of 6.94 percentage points. Production lines that had shut down in East and South China resumed operation successively, and the operation of the double - coated paper industry continued to recover [5]. Market Trends - The average price of 70g high - white double - coated paper on February 28th and yesterday was 4725 yuan/ton, with no change compared to last week and the same week - on - week and year - on - year. - In the spot market, the price of 70g Tianyang in the Shandong market increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of 70g Huaxia Taiyang increased by 25 yuan/ton. Other paper types in the Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged. - In terms of cost and profit, the pre - tax gross profit increased by 7 yuan, and the after - tax gross profit increased by 6 yuan. - In the futures market, the closing price of OP2603.SHF decreased by 108, and the closing price of OP2604.SHF increased by 80. The 1 - 3 spread decreased by 188. - The basis in the Shandong and Guangdong markets increased [8][9]. Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - The industry capacity has been continuously increasing, and the current industry is generally in a state of over - supply. In 2024, the domestic double - coated paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [14][18]. Weekly Production and Operation - This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry output was 192.5 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1% [22]. Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry sales volume was 191.5 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 395.0 thousand tons [29]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the domestic double - coated paper import volume was about 15 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 82 thousand tons [35]. Inventory - From the monthly sample inventory data, in January 2026, the social inventory increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly, with inventory shifting from upstream to downstream [40]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [46]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, this week, the domestic double - coated paper industry output was 192.5 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1%. In December, the domestic double - coated paper import volume was about 15 thousand tons, continuing the previous low import volume. - Demand: Domestically, this week, the domestic double - coated paper sales volume was 191.5 thousand tons. In December, the domestic double - coated paper export volume was about 82 thousand tons. - View: The futures price fluctuated around 4200 yuan/ton. There are many short - term external disturbances, and the implementation of price increase letters in the domestic market needs further observation. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. - Valuation: The futures price is at a discount to the spot market quotation of third - party information providers but may be higher than the self - pick - up prices of some traders. The enterprise production profit is low. - Strategy: Short positions can be closed at an appropriate time [50].