国泰君安期货·能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20260308

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic and international natural rubber futures first rose and then fell, showing an overall downward trend. However, in the short - term, the market is expected to be mainly oscillating and slightly stronger. The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited due to the approaching tapping season in domestic production areas and the weakening cost support. But the rising synthetic rubber prices driven by overseas geopolitical risks may boost natural rubber prices, and there may be a situation of natural rubber price compensation increase [104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) predicts that the total tire shipments in the United States in 2026 will increase by 0.7% to 338.9 million units [5]. - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that the global natural rubber production in 2026 will increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and the consumption will increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons. In January 2026, the natural rubber market price rose significantly [6]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck sales decreased by about 8% to 75,000 units. From January to February, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [7]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 22% year - on - year, with natural rubber exports down 29% and mixed rubber exports up 160% [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, domestic and international natural rubber futures first rose and then fell, with overall declines. For example, on March 6, 2026, the closing price of RU2605.SHF was 16,835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% [9][11]. - The basis and monthly spread of natural rubber futures changed, with the full - latex - RU05 basis being - 135 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026, a month - on - month increase of 34.15% and a year - on - year increase of 76.11% [15]. - Other spreads also changed. For instance, RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread increased [19]. - The prices of substitute products, such as butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber, rose due to the Middle East military conflict, which increased the production cost and affected the natural rubber market [30]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - The main producing areas in Southeast Asia are basically in the dry season with less rainfall, and the temperatures are generally normal, with Hainan's temperature slightly higher [38][42]. - The global main producing areas are at the end of the tapping season, with a significant contraction in overall supply. Cup - lump prices decreased due to negative feedback from Middle East tire demand, while latex prices remained relatively strong during the low - production season [44]. - Thailand's processing profits generally decreased. For example, on March 6, 2026, Thailand's standard rubber production profit was - 534 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.14% [51][53]. - In January 2026, Thailand's rubber exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the exports of smoked sheets were still relatively high compared with the same period in previous years [60]. - In February 2026, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and the exports to China also increased significantly [66]. - In January 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month but reached a high level in the same period of history, with a significant decline in latex exports. The exports to China also decreased month - on - month [70]. - In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's total rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased even more [74]. - In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 8.034 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.40% [78]. 3.3.2 Demand - After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed production, with most enterprises returning to normal levels during the week, which boosted the overall sample enterprise capacity utilization rate. All - steel tires continued to reduce inventory, and semi - steel tires also started to reduce inventory [81]. - In December 2025, the exports of all - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month, while the exports of semi - steel tires continued to recover. In January 2026, heavy - truck sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while passenger - car sales decreased [84]. - In December 2025, the road freight turnover and passenger turnover both decreased month - on - month [88]. 3.3.3 Inventory - China's natural rubber social inventory continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate narrowing compared with the previous period. The accumulation was still dominated by dark - colored rubber. Overseas supplies arriving at ports decreased, and the rising rubber prices suppressed downstream purchasing demand [95]. - The natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 117,500 tons on March 6, 2026, a week - on - week increase of 2.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.42% [98]. 3.4 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Thailand is gradually reducing production, with a seasonal contraction in raw material output and strong raw material prices. Some domestic and foreign production areas are in the non - tapping season, and the tapping time in domestic production areas is expected to be in line with seasonal expectations [103]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is running steadily and slightly strongly. Due to high raw material prices and shrinking profits, enterprises have a stronger willingness to increase prices, with some planning price increases of 3 - 5% [103]. - Viewpoint: The approaching tapping season in domestic production areas and the weakening cost support limit the upward driving force of rubber prices. However, the rising synthetic rubber prices may boost natural rubber prices, and the market is expected to be mainly oscillating and slightly stronger [104]. - Valuation: As of Friday, the spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,265 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the spread between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1,115 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton [105]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, try to go long at low prices and be cautious when chasing at high prices; for inter - period trading, stay on the sidelines; for cross - variety trading, stay on the sidelines [106].