多晶硅：现货下跌，盘面交易供需逻辑：工业硅：情绪扰动，提振盘面价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: This week, the inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to the upstream resumption rhythm. Although the upward space is limited due to hedging pressure, the downward space is supported by funds. It is recommended to buy at low levels, with the expected disk range next week between 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [5][6] - Polysilicon: The disk is in a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the spot price. It is in a state of high - inventory destocking with weak supply and demand. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The expected disk range next week is between 35000 - 45000 yuan/ton [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from February 6, 2026, to March 6, 2026, including Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: This week, the industry's inventory decreased by 14,000 tons, with social inventory and factory inventory each decreasing by 7,000 tons. The start - up rate increased slightly this week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Xinjiang factories, but subsequent start - up plans are affected by electricity price adjustments. The cost in the southwest region during the dry season is 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the disk) [2] - Raw materials: The report presents data on social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, import and export volume, trade - link inventory, and the prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, electrodes, and electricity prices in main production areas [11][13][14][18] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Price and production: The polysilicon spot price is falling, and the disk is trading based on supply - demand logic. The weekly output decreased this week, and the factory inventory increased. The cost is estimated to be 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton for the average full cost and 35,000 - 36,000 yuan/ton for the cash cost [1][3] - Demand: The silicon wafer production decreased week - on - week. The export - rush market due to the cancellation of photovoltaic tax - rebates is ending, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The demand is expected to decline, and the warehouse receipt pressure will also have a negative impact on the disk [3][4] - Related data: The report shows the spot price, production volume, start - up rate, import and export volume, profit calculation, single - crystal silicon wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new - installed capacity, and new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity of polysilicon [20][21][24] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Price and production: The average price of DMC is presented, and the monthly start - up rate, production volume, factory inventory, export volume, and profit calculation of the DMC industry are also shown [24][25] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Price and production: The report provides the price seasonality, monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation of the recycled aluminum industry, and the monthly sales seasonality of domestic automobiles [25][28]