国债期货周报-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market was affected by the Iran war and global risk appetite, showing a slight recovery followed by continuous fluctuations. The Two Sessions continued the moderately loose tone of monetary policy, but in the future, more emphasis may be placed on "price" tools rather than "quantity". At the same time, the Two Sessions made price recovery the focus of this year's work. In the medium term, due to reasons such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and the unfalsifiable expectations of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the view of a generally bearish and fluctuating trend is maintained [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The Treasury bond futures market was affected by the Iran war and global risk appetite, showing a slight recovery followed by continuous fluctuations. The Two Sessions continued the moderately loose tone of monetary policy, with more emphasis on "price" tools in the future. Price recovery was made the focus of this year's work. In the medium term, a generally bearish and fluctuating trend is expected [1][3]. - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed a pattern where the short - end was relatively strong and the long - end was stage - differentiated. The yield curve was steep in the middle of the week and then gradually flattened. The short - term capital market remained loose, and the market had strong expectations that the central bank would maintain liquidity stability [5]. 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided in detail, only the figure "Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking" is mentioned [10]. 3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds increased by 0.23%, foreign capital increased by 0.55%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 0.94%. In terms of weekly change, private funds increased by 3.15%, foreign capital increased by 5.57%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 7.21% [12].