国泰君安期货·能源化工：甲醇周度报告-20260308

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: March 8, 2026 - Analyst: Huang Tianyuan, Yang Honghan - Company: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to run strongly in the short term. Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the supply disturbance caused by geopolitics drives the price. The domestic methanol fundamentals have changed from weak to strong, and the expected decline in Iranian supplies has increased the valuation premium. [2][4] - In terms of methanol valuation, the upper - limit valuation is affected by geopolitical drivers, and the weight of MTO negative feedback pricing has significantly weakened. The bottom - limit valuation can still refer to the break - even line of static MTO profit. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - Production and Capacity Utilization: From February 27 to March 5, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,047,465 tons, a decrease of 23,980 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 91.65%, a 1.15% decline from the previous period. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0485 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 91.69%, showing an increase. [4] - Downstream Industries: In the short term, there are no plans for domestic MTO enterprises to change their devices, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable. In the traditional downstream, the supply of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and chlorides is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. [4] - Inventory: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons from the previous period, a 3.19% increase. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 295,200 tons, an increase of 85,500 tons from the previous period, a 104.91% increase. The Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1,443,500 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a 0.22% decrease. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - Basis, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts: There are historical data charts for the basis, 1 - 5 monthly spread, 5 - 9 monthly spread, and warehouse receipt quantity of methanol from 2020 to 2026. [8][9][11] - Domestic Spot Prices: There are historical data charts for the low - end market prices of methanol in Inner Mongolia, Henan, southern Shandong, and the imported market price in Taicang from 2020 to 2026. [13][14][15][16] - International Spot Prices: There are historical data charts for the CFR prices of methanol in China and Southeast Asia and the FOB price in Rotterdam from 2020 to 2026. [17][18][19] - Port - Inland Price Spread: There are historical data charts for the price differences between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and southern Shandong from 2020 to 2026. [21][22][23][24] 3.3 Supply - Methanol Production and Operating Rate: There are historical data charts for China's daily methanol production and capacity utilization rate from 2018 to 2026, as well as the capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol from 2018 to 2026. [26][27] - Methanol Production by Process: There are historical data charts for the weekly production of methanol from coke - oven gas, coal single - methanol, natural gas, and coal co - methanol in China from 2018 to 2026. [29][30][31] - Methanol Operating Rate by Region: There are historical data charts for the capacity utilization rate of methanol in the northwest, southwest, east, and central regions of China from 2018 to 2026. [33][34][35] - Methanol Import - Related: There are historical data charts for China's monthly total methanol import volume from 2020 to 2025, weekly import cost, weekly arrival volume, and daily import profit from 2020 to 2026. [37][38][39][40] - Methanol Cost and Profit: There are historical data charts for the production cost and profit of coal - based, coke - oven gas - based, and natural gas - based methanol in different regions from 2020 to 2026. [41][45][47] 3.4 Demand - Methanol Downstream Operating Rate: There are historical data charts for the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and other downstream industries in China from 2020 to 2026. [49][50][52] - Methanol Downstream Profit: There are historical data charts for the production profit of methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions from 2020 to 2026. [56][60][61][62] - MTO Procurement Volume by Region: There are historical data charts for the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in China, the east, northwest, and central regions from 2020 to 2026. [64][65][66] - Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region: There are historical data charts for the raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the north, east, and southwest regions from 2020 to 2026. [69][70][71] - Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region: There are historical data charts for the raw material inventory of downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the northwest, Shandong, and south regions from 2020 to 2026. [74][75][76] 3.5 Inventory - Methanol Factory Inventory: There are historical data charts for the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China, the east, northwest, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 to 2026. [79][80][81] - Methanol Port Inventory: There are historical data charts for the weekly port inventory of methanol in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2026. [85][86][87] 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it is expected to run strongly. The upper - limit pressure for the 05 contract is 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and the lower - limit support is 2,450 - 2,500 yuan/ton. [5] - Inter - period: Go long on the 5 - 9 spread. [5] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided currently. [5]