贵金属周报：强势美元及美债收益率，拖累贵金属估值承压-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market Performance: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's, despite a slight rebound on Friday. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 28 tons to 1,073.32 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares decreased by 231 tons to 15,762 tons [2]. - Impact Factors: The recent precious metal market transactions are concentrated on expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, hedging and inflation under geopolitical situations, uncertainties in trade policies, as well as economic stagflation and financial market risks. The weakness of precious metals this week was due to the Middle East geopolitical situation pushing up oil prices, further weakening the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed and European and American countries, leading to higher US dollar and US Treasury yields, thus suppressing precious metal prices. Additionally, the liquidity problem under the general decline of risk - assets also dragged down precious metal prices. However, precious metals showed a rebound trend on Friday due to concerns about economic recession rising after oil prices reached $90, increased financial market risks, a redemption wave in private credit of giants such as BlackRock, prominent shadow banking risks, a further decline in global stock markets, a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on Friday, a decline in the US dollar index, and the return of safe - haven buying demand for precious metals. Data shows that the US February non - farm payrolls report released on Friday evening showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, the non - farm payrolls increase turned negative, and the final values of non - farm payrolls increases in December and January were both revised down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US and the global economy [3]. - Long - term Logic: In the medium term, gold and silver prices will mainly benefit from the game between the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time window. The current low approval rating of Trump indicates that he is likely to continuously pursue two goals in the first half of the year: to promote the Fed to implement loose monetary policies and to improve his approval rating before the mid - term elections at the end of the year by strengthening the US hegemonic position and obtaining external interests. The expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policies, the weakening of the central bank's independence, or the fermentation of various uncertainties such as external geopolitics, international trade, and global financial markets will continuously support the increase in investment demand for gold and silver from the perspectives of monetary policy easing and safe - haven demand, thus being beneficial to the continued rise of gold and silver prices in the first half of the year. In the longer term, the credibility of the global US - dollar - dominated credit currency system continues to decline, and core issues such as the unsustainability of the US fiscal situation and the loosening of the US dollar hegemony are becoming increasingly prominent, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. This trend promotes central banks around the world to continuously increase their gold reserves, triggers the competition for gold pricing power and the reconstruction of the global gold market system, and lays a solid foundation for the long - term rise of gold and silver [5]. - Trading Strategy: Strategically, the report still maintains a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regards corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. The support level for London gold is at 5,000, and the strong support is around the 60 - day moving average of 4,800. The support level for London silver is at 80, and the strong support is in the 70 - 72 area [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - Core Contradictions - Market Review: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased [2]. - Impact Factors Analysis: The precious metal market was affected by multiple factors, including the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, trade policies, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. The rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to geopolitical factors suppressed precious metal prices, but concerns about economic recession and financial risks on Friday led to a rebound in precious metal prices [3]. - Long - term Trading Logic: In the medium term, gold and silver prices are affected by the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time. In the long term, the de - dollarization process and central bank gold - buying behavior support the rise of gold and silver prices [5]. - Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regard corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. Provide support levels for London gold and silver [6]. Chapter 2: Market Information - This Week's Event Concerns: Enter the quiet period of Fed officials before the March 19 FOMC meeting. Continue to focus on the progress of the Middle East situation, the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian supreme leader election, the spread of the US private equity redemption wave, and the pressure on the credit market caused by discount selling risks [15]. - Last Week and This Week's Data Concerns: Provide a large amount of US and Chinese economic data, including PMI, non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, CPI, etc. [14][16] Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data - International Precious Metal Market: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of international precious metals such as London gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and the positions and inventories of related ETFs and CFTC [17]. - Domestic Precious Metal Market: Show the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic precious metals such as SHFE gold and silver, and the inventories of related exchanges [17]. - US Financial Asset Performance: Provide the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of US financial assets such as the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, stock indices, etc. [18]. - Domestic Financial Market: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic financial assets such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, stock indices, and Treasury yields [19]. Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Information - FOMC Post - meeting Statement: Compare and analyze the FOMC post - meeting statements in 2026/1/29 and 2025/12/11, including the assessment of the economic situation, policy goals, policy decisions, and voting situations [34]. - Economic Forecast Table (December FOMC): Provide economic forecast data such as real GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, PCE inflation rate, and federal funds rate from 2025 to 2028 and in the long - run [36]. - US CPI and Other Data: Analyze the composition and changes of the US CPI, and present data on the US CPI and core CPI, PCE price index, non - farm payrolls, etc. [42][44] Chapter 5: Sensitive Demand and Valuation - Sensitive Demand - ETF Investment Demand: Show the long - term positions of gold and silver ETFs, including SPDR, SLV, and Chinese top 3 gold ETFs and Hua'an Gold ETF [54][56]. - Valuation Anchoring - Related Assets: Analyze the price relationships between precious metals and related assets such as the COMEX gold - silver ratio, gold and silver lease rates, gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real yields, etc. [58][60][62] - Global Major Exchange Inventories: Present the inventory data of precious metals in major global exchanges such as LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, and SGX [77][79][80]