南华期货钢材周报：炉料端成本支撑钢材价格-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term cost support from coking coal and iron ore prices boosts steel prices, but high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils cap price increases. If destocking is below expectations, steel prices may fall. After the Two Sessions, market expectations return to the fundamentals of steel. The short - term upward trend of steel prices is limited, with the price range of rebar's main contract being 3000 - 3200 and that of hot - rolled coils' main contract being 3200 - 3350 [1][2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up oil and energy prices, which in turn boost coking coal prices. Market rumors about China's procurement restrictions on BHP's iron ore, downstream post - holiday restocking demand, tight tradable iron ore inventory at ports, and rising sea freight prices support iron ore prices. However, high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils, weakening steel demand, and limited policy stimulus pose challenges to steel prices [1][2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The steel market is expected to trade within a range. The price of rebar's main contract 2605 may range from 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils' main contract 2605 from 3200 - 3350. - Near - term Trading Logic: Cost support from iron ore and coking coal, and pressure on the price of hot - rolled coils from high inventory and high warrants. - Long - term Trading Expectations: Expectations of steel production cuts and demand support from major projects in the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan [6] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range of rebar's 05 contract is predicted to be 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils' 05 contract 3100 - 3500. - Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management, companies with high finished - product inventory can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell call options. For procurement management, those with low inventory can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell put options [8] 1.4 Data Overview - Spot Prices: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in most regions showed a slight decline or remained stable. - Base Difference: The base differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally decreased. - Overseas Data: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in some countries and regions changed slightly [9][10] Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Next - Week Important Event Concerns - China will announce February CPI on Monday, February M2 supply on Tuesday. The US will announce the end - of - February unadjusted CPI on Wednesday and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday [16][17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Base Difference: Cost support from iron ore and coking coal, but factors such as weakening blast furnace profits, high inventory, and weakening export orders suppress steel prices. - Coil - Rebar Spread, Term Structure, Month - Spread Structure: Various data charts are provided to show the historical trends of these indicators [16][18][27] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The report presents the profit trends of different steel products, including long - process rebar, hot - rolled coils, and cold - rolled coils, as well as the relationships between steel profits and production volumes [35][36][39] 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - It shows the seasonal trends of hot - rolled coil export profits and their relationships with export volumes, orders, and price differences between domestic and overseas markets [53][58][68] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The cumulative consumption and production of five major steel products from January to March 6, 2026, are provided, along with their year - on - year growth rates. The current inventory levels of each product are also given [75] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply is affected by factors such as blast furnace and electric furnace production, steel enterprise profitability, and maintenance influence [80][83][92] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The report provides the consumption prediction trends of different steel products, including crude steel, five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils [94][96][98]