Guoxin Securities·2026-03-08 11:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, insurance, and brokerage firms, highlighting specific companies such as China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, Ping An Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, Industrial Securities, and East Money [4][3]. Core Insights - The "deposit migration" narrative is expected to influence capital market funding expectations significantly starting from the second half of 2025, continuing into the first quarter of 2026. This trend is driven by a decline in residents' risk appetite, leading to a "wealth depositization" effect and the maturity of high-interest fixed deposits [1][11]. - Approximately 80-90% of maturing deposits are expected to remain within the banking system, with only about 10-20% potentially flowing into asset management products, which could result in an increase of 6-13 trillion yuan in asset management products [1][23]. - The report indicates that while deposit migration supports risk assets, it does not lead to an overall contraction in liquidity within the financial system, suggesting a favorable environment for a "strong equity and stable bond" asset allocation strategy [1][11]. Summary by Sections Deposit Migration Narrative - The narrative begins with the maturity of high-interest deposits and their subsequent flow into various financial products. It is anticipated that a significant portion of these funds will migrate to asset management, insurance, and public funds, with a focus on "solid income+" and Fund of Funds (FOF) products [8][51]. - The report estimates that 10-20% of maturing deposits will flow into non-deposit markets, primarily into low-risk financial products that align with the risk preferences of depositors [21][23]. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to experience stock differentiation until a clear upward trend in fundamentals is established. The report recommends selecting stocks with recovery potential, specifically highlighting China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank [3][4]. - The report notes that the overall valuation of insurance stocks is at a historical low, providing a significant safety margin, and suggests focusing on Ping An Insurance and China Pacific Insurance [3][4]. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector, particularly dividend insurance products, is positioned to capture a portion of the migrating deposits due to their unique risk-return profile, which combines guaranteed returns with potential for higher floating returns [41][50]. - The report emphasizes that dividend insurance products are gaining traction among middle-aged and conservative investors, with banks acting as a primary distribution channel [50][41]. Public Fund Insights - Public funds, especially "solid income+" and FOF products, are experiencing rapid growth as investors seek stable returns in a low-interest environment. The report notes that FOF products have seen significant inflows, with new issuance surpassing 240 billion yuan in 2025 [51][52]. - The report highlights a structural shift in public funds, with a preference for balanced risk-return profiles, while active equity funds face challenges in maintaining inflows despite generating excess returns [52][53]. Brokerage Insights - The brokerage sector is characterized by a strong preference for ETF and index-linked products, which align well with the needs of high-risk tolerance investors. The report notes that the demand for these products is expected to continue growing, supported by the increasing effectiveness of the A-share market [54][56]. - The report suggests that brokerages will focus on developing differentiated index products to meet the evolving needs of their clients, emphasizing quality over quantity in product offerings [58][59].