国泰君安期货·能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260308

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week's pulp view is oscillating with an upward bias. The supply side has high port inventories and ongoing supply pressure, but the inventory accumulation is less than the same period last year, with relatively controllable pressure. The demand side sees the downstream start - up rate gradually increasing, and there are price - increase expectations for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp market. Currently, the pulp market has cost - support and unmet demand. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a limited direct impact but an indirect impact on the domestic pulp market, and its long - term impact depends on the duration of the closure. It is recommended to buy on dips for unilateral trading and observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of March 5, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 656,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous period and a 4.2% month - on - month decrease. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,562,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons and a 2.8% month - on - month increase. Gaolan Port's inventory was 69,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons and an 11.3% month - on - month increase. The total inventory of the main pulp ports in China was 2,408,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons and a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - On March 3, 2026, the Joutseno pulp mill of the Finnish group Stora Enso will be shut down on March 31, 2026, with an annual production capacity of 690,000 tons of softwood pulp [6]. - On March 3, 2026, Zhanjiang Chenming's chemical pulp production line resumed production. Chile's Arauco's March softwood pulp offer was $710/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Star was $620/ton, up $20/ton; and natural pulp Venus was $620/ton, unchanged [7]. Market Data - Market Trends - On March 6, 2026, the basis of Silver Star was - 22 yuan/ton, with a 650% month - on - month decrease compared to February 27, 2026, and a 103.43% year - on - year decrease. The basis of Russian Needle was - 222 yuan/ton, with a 52.05% month - on - month decrease and a 105.56% year - on - year decrease. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, with a 33.33% month - on - month increase and a 73.33% year - on - year decrease [14]. - Basis and Monthly Spread - On March 6, 2026, the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 22 yuan/ton, with a 31.25% month - on - month increase compared to February 27, 2026. The 07 - 09 monthly spread was - 24 yuan/ton, with a 29.41% month - on - month increase [19]. Fundamental Data - Price - Needle - Broadleaf Price Difference and Import Profit - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish widened, while the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish remained stable. On March 6, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 700 yuan/ton, with a 7.69% month - on - month increase and a 61.11% year - on - year decrease. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a 52.38% year - on - year decrease [24][26]. - The import profit of softwood pulp improved month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp decreased. On March 6, 2026, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 317.88 yuan/ton, with a 17.25% month - on - month increase and a 74.20% year - on - year decrease. The import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 315.89 yuan/ton, with an 81.90% month - on - month decrease and a 50.64% year - on - year decrease [31][33]. - Softwood Pulp - The price of the main pulp contract rose and then narrowed. The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased slightly compared to before the holiday, but the actual trading atmosphere was relatively light [35]. - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, and Russian Needle were 5300 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [37]. - Hardwood Pulp - The FOB quotation of hardwood pulp was relatively firm, but the domestic market demand recovery was limited. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp declined weakly [39]. - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4600 yuan/ton, 4600 yuan/ton, 4580 yuan/ton, and 4500 yuan/ton respectively [41]. - Natural Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp - On March 6, 2026, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 4850 yuan/ton and 3800 yuan/ton respectively [44]. - Supply - Wood Chip Price - Before the holiday, the wood - chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased [46]. - On March 6, 2026, the wood - chip purchase prices of eucalyptus clean chips - Liansheng Pulp and Paper, poplar clean chips - Wuzhou Special Paper, etc. were 1160 yuan/ton, 1300 yuan/ton, etc. respectively [48]. - Domestic Pulp - The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased, and the supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp recovered [50]. - On March 5, 2026, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3883.33 yuan/ton, and the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo Paper's hardwood pulp (Senbo) was 4850 yuan/ton [52]. - European Port Inventory and Global Pulp Outbound Volume - In January 2026, the European pulp port inventory decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. In November 2025, the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [54]. - W20 Shipment Volume and Inventory - In November 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was low, and the inventory was high. The hardwood pulp inventory was at a high level, the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [58]. - Overseas Softwood Pulp Export Volume - In December 2025, the softwood pulp export volume of four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased month - on - month. In January 2026, the softwood pulp export volume of Chile to China remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [62]. - Overseas Hardwood Pulp Export Volume - In January 2026, the hardwood pulp export volume of four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month. In February 2026, the hardwood pulp export volume of Brazil and Uruguay to China increased month - on - month [68]. - Pulp Import Volume - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The softwood pulp imports increased by 7.27% month - on - month, the hardwood pulp imports decreased by 23.38% month - on - month, and the imports of natural and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [70]. - Demand - Offset Paper - The domestic offset paper market was range - bound, and the trading was still dull. Some factories planned to raise prices, but the price increase was not effectively transmitted to the terminal. The social inventory of offset paper decreased month - on - month [74]. - Coated Paper - The domestic coated paper price increased slightly. The supply was abundant, but the demand was not significantly boosted. Some factories planned to raise prices, but the price increase was blocked at the terminal [78]. - White Cardboard - The white cardboard market was dull. Although large factories promoted price increases, the increase was reduced by 100 yuan/ton compared to the original plan. The main reasons were high paper - mill inventory, high trader inventory, and expected changes in the supply pattern [82]. - Household Paper - The household paper market price remained stable, and the trading atmosphere was light. Some paper enterprises in the north signaled price increases, but the industry was mostly waiting and watching. The raw - material pulp market fluctuated, and the hardwood pulp price was stable, providing little support for the household paper price [86]. - Terminal Demand - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products, as well as the dairy production, increased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [92]. - Inventory - Futures Inventory - On March 6, 2026, the total number of pulp warehouse receipts (warehouse) was 138,300 tons, with a 0.22% month - on - month increase and a 59.74% year - on - year decrease. The total number of pulp warehouse receipts (factory warehouse) was 16,000 tons, with a 6.67% month - on - month increase and a 25.02% year - on - year decrease [93]. - Spot Inventory - The main pulp port inventory continued to accumulate. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to accumulate, while Changshu Port's inventory decreased. On March 6, 2026, the inventories of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and the combined Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao Ports were 1,562,000 tons, 656,000 tons, and 190,000 tons respectively, with the total inventory of the five ports being 2,408,000 tons [99].