国泰君安期货·能源化工：玻璃纯碱周度报告-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Glass - Short - term outlook is bullish, mid - term is a sideways market. Short - term supply detection and cost increase drive a market rebound. In March, there may be further production cuts. Mid - term, the market will fluctuate between production cut - driven increases and demand - weakness and weak basis - driven decreases. In 2026, it may be a sideways market in the first half and bullish in the second half [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term rebound, mid - term sideways market. Cost increase due to war and spring maintenance in March - April drive the short - term rebound. Supply surplus, high forward futures premium, and future downstream production cuts are the main pressures. It follows the glass market but with lower volatility [3]. Summary by Directory Glass - Supply - This week, two production lines were ignited in North China and East China (electronic line), with a total capacity of 920 tons. As of March 5, 2026, there are 295 glass production lines (199,400 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 210 in production and 85 cold - repaired. The daily output is 148,500 tons, the same as on February 26. The average开工率 is 70.81% (up 0.54 percentage points), and the average capacity utilization rate is 74.47% (up 0.14 percentage points). The daily loss is 50,850 tons (down 0.20%) and the weekly loss is 356,350 tons (down 0.59%) [2]. - Potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting capacity of 15,150 tons/day; potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting capacity of 9,440 tons; potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting capacity of 11,620 tons/day [6][7][8]. - Usually, the supply side tends to resume production from the second to the third quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 148,000 tons/day, and the peak in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [9][10]. Glass - Price and Profit - Most prices are stable. The price in Shahe is about 1,030 - 1,090 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei is about 1,080 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 1,260 - 1,340 yuan/ton [15][16][17][18]. - The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of petroleum - coke is about 27 yuan/ton, while the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels are about - 105 and - 36 yuan/ton respectively [19][22][26]. Glass - Inventory and Downstream开工 - Downstream has just started, and short - term inventory still tends to rise, but recent transactions have improved. Current inventory is high, and most areas' inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. The key for the market in March - April is whether sales can improve significantly [30][31]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronous, and the price difference changes little [33]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit, Capacity and Inventory - In the first quarter, the situation is slightly weak. Focus on whether it can improve in mid - to late March or April. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.0 - 10.5 yuan/square meter (down 4.65% week - on - week), and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.0 - 17.5 yuan/square meter (down 2.82% week - on - week) [38][40]. - The production capacity has slightly shrunk. There are 399 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 88,100 tons/day (down 0.90% week - on - week). Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve slightly after the second quarter, and inventory may start to decline [41][42][44]. 纯碱 - Supply and Maintenance - This week, the supply of soda ash was adjusted at a high level. The weekly output was 807,000 tons (up 16,000 tons, 2.03% week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate was 86.77% (up 1.73% week - on - week). Some companies are under maintenance or have reduced operating loads [3][51]. - The capacity utilization rate is 85.04% (down from 86.77% last week). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 432,000 tons. There is still a supply surplus pressure [52][53]. 纯碱 - Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9472 million tons (up 52,800 tons, 2.79% week - on - week). Light soda ash inventory is 1.0273 million tons (up 28,800 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory is 919,900 tons (up 24,000 tons). Compared with the same period last year, it is up 187,300 tons (10.64%) [54][56][57]. 纯碱 - Price, Profit - The low - end price in Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - cash traders have increased significantly, while the ex - factory prices of manufacturers have changed little. The ex - factory prices in North China are concentrated around 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Central China are concentrated at 1,100 - 1,180 yuan/ton [64]. - The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of the joint - alkali process in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali process in North China is - 83 yuan/ton [66][70].