国泰君安期货·君研海外：境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告-20260308

Report Title - Overseas Equity (Hong Kong and US Stocks) Weekly Strategy Report [1] Report Date - March 8, 2026 [2] Analyst Information - Analyst: Dai Lu (Z0021475), Contact: Yang Teng (F03151619) [2] US Stocks Market Performance - This week, the "geopolitical situation" remained unresolved, and the US stock market continued its defensive and wait - and - see stance. The energy sector led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes declined. The rise in oil and gas prices reignited stagflation concerns, causing the consumer sector to perform weakly [3][5] - The VIX index soared to its highest level since April last year [4] Investment Strategy - Short - term: Maintain a certain defensive position (military/energy) and appropriately reduce the overall risk appetite of the portfolio. Wait for the situation to become clearer and then enter the market at low levels. Also, pay attention to the potential fluctuations brought by Oracle's earnings report and February CPI data next week [5][9] - Medium - to - long - term: US stock investment will return to fundamental endogenous factors. Hardware + HALO assets are favored [9] Key Events to Watch - Oracle will release its latest earnings report on March 11th. Last December, Oracle's earnings report with higher - than - expected CAPEX and lower - than - expected revenue triggered a pulse adjustment in the US stock market [6] Chinese - funded Stocks Market Performance - This week, the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets oscillated and closed lower. The trading theme was centered around "geopolitical games", with sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, shipping, and dividends leading the gains [10][11] Investment Strategy - Short - term: Maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low levels [11] - Medium - term: A - shares are considered better than Hong Kong stocks. Adopt a balanced allocation strategy of technology + physical cycle, with a focus on the contraction of the technology circle (upstream infrastructure (domestic and foreign demand chains) > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) [16] Hong Kong Stocks Market Performance - On Friday, the Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded strongly. This was due to JD.com signaling a reduction in takeaway investment. JD.com's Q4 conference call announced that the investment scale of its takeaway business in 2026 would be lower than the previous year, triggering a large - scale short - covering in the Hang Seng Technology Index [13][16] Investment Strategy - Short - term: Keep a certain defensive position (energy, military, and dividends) to hedge risks and wait for the situation to become clearer before buying at low levels [16] - Medium - term: A - shares are preferred over Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong stocks face potential headwinds, such as VAT rumors, the threat of software business models being disrupted by large - scale models, and weak liquidity. HALO assets are more concentrated in A - shares [16]