输入通胀有谜团，债市演绎斗兽棋

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [28] 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has seen a recovery this year, but the ongoing Middle - East situation has shifted asset pricing from "pulse - style" risk - aversion to inflation concerns. "Input - type" or "supply - side" inflation doesn't necessarily lead to bond market adjustments, and inflation usually isn't the core contradiction in the bond market. The report maintains the judgment that the 10 - year bond will repair to 1.75% and the 30 - year bond to 2.15%, and the 30 - year bond may present more opportunities due to its chip structure [4][8][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 War and PPI Inflation - Since the beginning of the year, the bond market has had a recovery, but the Middle - East situation has changed asset pricing. As of March 6, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 14.1%, with precious metals, industrial products, and agricultural products up 22.6%, 12.8%, and 3.9% respectively. The PPI inflation in March may accelerate further, with the average of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index in March up 6.7% from February, higher than the 4.4% increase in January. The inflation in January was driven by technology optimism and strategic premiums in metals, while the inflation in March is due to the US - Iran war, with oil prices soaring and affecting downstream products [8][9] 3.2 Impact of Inflation on the Bond Market - The current commodity price rebound is an "input - type inflation" risk caused by geopolitical events and energy prices. Inflation affects interest rates through two mechanisms: influencing central bank monetary policy and affecting inflation expectations or risk preferences. Looking at historical data from three similar post - 2020 periods, central bank monetary policy remained stable, and there was no consistent conclusion on market interest rates. "Input - type" or "supply - side" inflation doesn't necessarily lead to bond market adjustments and usually isn't the core contradiction in the bond market [14][21] 3.3 Micro - behavior and Strategy of the Bond Market - In the first week of March, the borrowing of Special 6 reached 10 billion, and the bond market showed a multi - empty game. After the holiday, 25 Special 6 first covered short positions and then increased short positions, with the borrowing concentration rising to a record high of 41.7%. Some short - sellers forced funds to stop losses, but the current fund holding duration is about 2.4 years, and there has been little addition of duration. The bond market has decoupled from high - volatility assets and has become a low - volatility allocation asset. The report maintains the repair targets of 1.75% for the 10 - year bond and 2.15% for the 30 - year bond, and the 30 - year bond may have more opportunities [23][25][26]