烧碱：偏强震荡，但需关注盘面升水幅度，PVC：短期偏强，关注海外供应

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - This week, caustic soda is expected to trend strongly with oscillations, but attention should be paid to the extent of the premium on the futures market. The supply is expected to contract slightly in the short - term, while demand is expanding, especially in the non - aluminum downstream industries after the Lantern Festival. The export market is warming up, with export prices rising. However, the futures premium over the spot is more than 20%, so caution is needed [5]. 2.2 PVC - In the short - term, PVC is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to overseas supply. Although the domestic market fundamentals have not improved significantly, the situation in the Middle East, cost increases, and supply disruptions in overseas chlor - alkali plants support the short - term PVC market. But if domestic manufacturers do not cut production, the market will lack continuous upward momentum [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Core Contradictions and Exports - Core Contradictions: There are three major core contradictions, including high supply and high inventory, the continuous existence of alumina production reduction expectations, and future new production capacity. The supply - side has a weak willingness to cut production, and demand expansion is affected by low profits. There are also issues related to delivery area changes and delivery premium adjustments [13]. - Exports: The export market has clearly recovered. In 2025, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 4.1087 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The Northeast Asian FOB price has risen to around $350 per dry ton. The domestic FOB offer in East China has increased to $360 - 370 per ton, a weekly increase of $40. If Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe, caustic soda exports are expected to expand significantly [14][18][22]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - Production and Inventory: The market structure shows an increase in both production and inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above is 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide is 555,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.73% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54% [35][36][39]. - Maintenance and New Capacity: There are relatively few caustic soda maintenance plans in March. In 2026, caustic soda production will continue to increase, with a production capacity growth rate of over 3%, and the total planned new capacity is 2.94 million tons [42][43]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of marginal plants in Shandong is calculated to be 1,815 yuan/ton. The price of liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda is average. The downstream industries of chlorine consumption, such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform, have stable operations and rising profits [47][48][51]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: In the first half of 2026, alumina production is concentrated, with expected new production capacity of 13.9 million tons throughout the year. However, the alumina industry is currently experiencing a decline in production, inventory accumulation, and profit losses, and there are expectations of production cuts [68][70][73]. - Other Industries: The pulp industry is in the off - season, with continuous compression of terminal profits. The new pulp production capacity is being continuously put into operation. The finished paper industry has stable operations, the viscose staple fiber industry has stable operations, and the printing and dyeing industry has a rising operation rate. The water treatment industry has a rising operation rate, while the ternary precursor industry has a decline in production [79][84][89]. 3.4 PVC Core Contradictions and Spreads - Core Contradictions: The short - sellers' main logic includes high supply, high inventory, weak domestic demand, and a slowdown in export growth. The long - sellers' main logic includes policy - driven factors, cost support, multi - asset linkage, overseas plant shutdowns and production cuts, and capital - driven factors [99][101]. - Spreads: The PVC basis has weakened, and the monthly spread has strengthened [102]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 81.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 0.97%. There are relatively few PVC maintenance plans in March 2026. Except for the release of the production capacity of Jiahua, there is no new production capacity in 2026 [108][112][113]. - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered. The downstream industries of PVC have seen an increase in operation rates after the Spring Festival. However, starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for PVC and other products will be cancelled, and India has launched an anti - subsidy investigation against Chinese PVC resin, which will increase the competition pressure for PVC exports in the future [122][132][133].